Russia is the main supplier of all nutrients for crops. Its attack on Ukraine is already translating into an increase in fertilizer prices in the world. Agrochem Puławy has published a new price list of multi-component and phosphorus-potassium fertilizers, which have become more expensive. The company has not changed the prices of nitrogen fertilizers, the price list is valid from January 28, 2022.
It’s March, so intensive field work is underway. Sowing fertilizers, not only nitrogen fertilizers, but also applying natural fertilizers. Due to the high prices last year, and also in 2022, many farmers decided to limit their application, but also many, seeing the high prices of agricultural produce, especially rape, want to take care of the final yield and invest in this crop.
So far, at our fertilizer outlets, prices have not surged. Market probing is in progress. Also Agrochem Puławy (authorized dealer of Grupa Azoty), which usually updated the price list of nitrogen fertilizers at the end of the month, has not done so now. The page shows the one from January 28th. Nevertheless, the prices of compound fertilizers were updated on March 2 this year. and in this case there were increases.
Source Agrochem Puławy
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Below, in the text, we present the prices of fertilizers as of January 28, 2022, according to data from Agrochem Puławy.
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Will the prices go up?
There are many indications that fertilizers will become more expensive due to the very difficult situation in our eastern neighbors. They are already becoming more expensive, and it is rapidly increasing in world markets.
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Here is the latest Twitter from Josh Linville, StoneX’s Director of Fertilizers, reporting on soaring fertilizer prices. Urea – $ 700 per ton, nitrate-urea solution – $ 600, ammonium phosphate – $ 900.
HOW #urea closing in on $700
HOW #UAN closing in on $600
HOW #DAP closing in on $900I’m closing in on a nervous breakdown…
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) March 2, 2022
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And a moment earlier on the same day, i.e. on March 2, 2022, he reported that the loss of Chinese and Russian exports of phosphates means the loss of nearly half of the total world exports. And the price of a tonne of ammonium phosphorus was on January 25, 2022 at $ 665, and on February 28, 2022 – $ 865. Now it’s $ 900.
In case someone wasn’t depressed yet:
Jan 25, 2022 NOLA phys #DAP – $665
Feb 28, 2022 NOLA phys DAP – $ 865All time high – $1,100 (I believe)
Losing China/Russian phosphate exports means losing close to half global export total…
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) March 2, 2022
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We must bear in mind that the value of the zloty is falling and $ 1 costs about PLN 4.3.
The influence of the war on the fertilizer market
The price of fertilizers is dictated by the international market. – The production of nitrogen fertilizers requires a large amount of natural gas. Natural gas prices in Asia (Russia and China) and Europe increased after October 2021 due to the cold winter and increased consumption of heating. As more natural gas was used for heating, the availability of natural gas for the fertilizer industry decreased. As a consequence, the price of nitrogen on the international market doubled from October 2020 to December 2021, assessed the situation by the soilfertility.ces.ncsu.edu portal.
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China accounts for 30% of global nitrogen trade. Due to the shortage of natural gas, China suspended sales of nitrogen fertilizers on the international market in October 2021 until July 2022. As China sells fertilizers containing both nitrogen and phosphorus, the energy crisis has also had an impact on the prices of phosphorus fertilizers. Russia has large reserves of natural gas and supplies around 40% of the natural gas used in Western Europe. Gas pipelines from Russia to Western Europe run through Ukraine. We are concerned that the war in Ukraine may affect the supply of natural gas to Europe. If Europe has less availability of natural gas, they may reduce the production of nitrogen fertilizers and import more fertilizers. The higher demand for nitrogen will certainly affect the prices of nitrogen fertilizers, said analysts at soilfertility.ces.ncsu.edu.
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The long-term impact of the war on fertilizer prices
German agrarheute.com recently reported that fertilizer prices have been relatively stable recently. At least on paper. But that can change quickly.
– Depending on how long the Russian invasion and the impact of sanctions lasts, fertilizer prices will follow the new changes. It will probably increase. In any case, before the start of spring orders it seems there is no chance of any sharper price drops – neither in Europe nor in the US. This week there were also reports from China about rising prices of fertilizers – but most of all potassium fertilizers – the portal informed.
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The problem is that Russia is one of the world’s most important suppliers of fertilizers and related raw materials such as sulfur. Last year, the Russians were the largest exporter of urea, multi-component NPK fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), ammonia, UAN and ammonium nitrate. It is also the third largest exporter of potash in the world and the fourth largest phosphate and sulfur. Alternative vendors cannot actually fill these gaps, assessed agrarheute.com.
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