Yesterday, on Monday, we believed that despite the hawkish speech of the No. 3 figure in the Federal Reserve, which suppressed the short-term decline of gold, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve still provided support to the overall price of gold. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is recommended that everyone treat it with a strong shock mentality, and focus on 2018 for support below. To the 2014 US dollar area, the upper side will pay attention to the breakthrough of gold price near 2026 US dollars. A successful breakthrough may have the opportunity to test the position above 2040 US dollars.
Judging from the subsequent trend, gold encountered resistance near 2026 US dollars, falling as low as 2018 US dollars. After stabilizing, it rebounded again to 2026 US dollars and met resistance, maintaining a narrow range. Until the US market, the gold price rose by 10 US dollars in the short term and exceeded 2026 US dollars. The U.S. dollar was suppressed near $2,033, but gold prices soon fell back, falling to around $2,026 and fluctuating sideways. Gold continued to fluctuate within a narrow range at the opening on Tuesday and is currently trading around $2,026. Gold stabilized and rebounded near the support of the US dollar in 2018, maintaining a strong and volatile consolidation, basically in line with expectations.
Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned dovish last week, causing a rapid reversal in market sentiment and pushing gold to rise by $70. As investors basically digested expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, this slowed down gold’s gains. , and Federal Reserve official Williams’s hawkish speech further hindered gold’s rise, and gold prices fell back in the short term. Despite this, investors still generally believe that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates ahead of schedule, which supports the overall trend of gold. .
In terms of news, strong U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation data in November once suppressed expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the dovish attitude shown by the Federal Reserve last week surprised the market. The dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times next year. , a total of 75 basis points of interest rate cuts, which formed an important support for gold. Federal Reserve official Williams said in a speech that there is currently no real discussion of interest rate cuts. This has caused gold to fall back in the short term. However, investors still believe that the Federal Reserve will reduce its restrictive policies ahead of schedule. The probability of an interest rate cut in March next year is still as high as 67%.
On the daily chart, after a big positive line of gold pulled up, the rise encountered short-term resistance. However, the price of gold fell back and still stood firmly at the support of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. On Monday, the gold price fell and stabilized and rebounded near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands of 2018 US dollars. , it will run to around $2019 during the day. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages re-formed golden crosses running upwards, and the KDJ indicator golden crosses diverged, showing that long-term dominance prevailed. However, the MACD indicator crossed, the DIFF line turned upward and weakened, and the RSI indicator was close to flattening to a position above 50. , showing that the short-term strength of many parties has weakened.
Gold intraday reference: Gold’s rise has encountered resistance, but expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates still support gold to remain above $2,000, with high fluctuations and strong operation. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat the situation with a strong shock. The lower support focuses on the 2019 to 2015 US dollars area, and the upper pressure focuses on 2033 and 2043 US dollars.
2023-12-19 09:24:00
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