On Tuesday, two Russian radio masts were blown up in Transnistria. According to the UN, Transnistria is a region in Moldova, but the area has declared itself independent and is referred to as a Russian-backed breakaway republic.
The Transnistrian authorities accuse Ukraine of being behind the attacks, which the Ukrainians deny.
– Who is behind the attacks in Transnistria?
– This is a question many are asking now, and as I see it, there are four possibilities, says researcher Jakub Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI).
Diversionary maneuver
The first possibility Godzimirski points out is that Russian forces may be interested in creating confusion and tension in the area, in order to divert Ukrainian attention away from the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
“Such a diversionary maneuver could be a way of forcing the Ukrainian authorities to send forces to guard the border with Transnistria, thus taking the forces away from where they are needed more,” Godzimirski said.
The second possibility is that it is the Ukrainians who are trying to create confusion, and that they are testing what they can do against the Russian forces in Transnistria. Just two kilometers from the border with Ukraine is Cobasna, where a large number of weapons and ammunition are guarded by Russian soldiers.
– It is conceivable that the Ukrainians will test whether it is possible to gain control of this weapons depot, to use the weapons against the Russians, the researcher says.
On Wednesday, the Interior Ministry of Transnistria claimed that it was shooting at Cobasna. This must have happened a few hours after drones flew over the area.
– The drones came from Ukraine, it is said in an announcement from the ministry.
Godzimirski sees it as unlikely that Ukrainian forces are behind the attack. It is said that there are between 1500 and 2000 Russian soldiers in Transnistria, in addition to the region having its own forces of around 8000 soldiers.
– It would not be easy for the Ukrainians to carry out such an operation. I also think it is unlikely that the Ukrainians are interested in opening a new front, all the time they have more than enough to do in the Donbas.
– Can be presented as a threat to Russian interests
The third alternative is that forces in Moldova are behind the attacks. Transnistria and Moldova have been in conflict since the early 1990s, when Transnistria declared independence.
– There may be some in Moldova who will use the opportunity to undermine Transnistria’s credibility, and use the war to take control of the area. But it is also unlikely that such forces are behind it, Godzimirski believes, and elaborates:
– Moldova has very limited resources, plus an attack on Transnistria would mean an attack on Russian forces. It is not something the Moldovan authorities would earn much from.
– Researcher Jakub Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI). Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
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The fourth possibility the researcher points out is that the authorities or groups in Transnistria are interested in getting more attention.
– They may want to present the situation as a threat to Russian interests, in order to accelerate the Russians’ movements towards Transnistria. Transnistria has declared itself independent, and some people in the area would prefer to be part of Russia.
Russia’s history with Moldova
Researcher Jakub Godzimirski explains why Moldova has historically held a special position in Russia:
– In the 19th century, Moldova was mainly an area called Bessarabia, which changed hands many times throughout history. First it was independent, before it was occupied by Turkey. Russia fought many wars with Turkey and gained control of the area, but after World War I, Bessarabia became part of Romania.
Bessarabia was then incorporated into the Soviet Union, before the Germans occupied the area during World War II. In 1944, the Germans were driven away by Soviet forces, which incorporated Moldova as a republic into the Soviet Union. During the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many hoped that Moldova would be reunited with Romania, leading to concerns among sections of the population that the Russian language and culture would be suppressed.
– In 1990, Transnistria declared independence from Moldova, after which a war was fought in which Russian forces eventually participated on Transnistria’s side. It was after this that Russia sent in so-called peacekeeping forces.
– Moldova is important for Russia in a historical context, but it is also one of the poorest countries in Europe. If Russia took control of the country, they would have to transfer a lot of money to secure control. I do not think Russia is very interested in Moldova as such, but they may be interested in creating insecurity and supporting separatists. Through it, they can indirectly have control over Moldovan politics.
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– Moldova should expect guests
Godzimirski emphasizes that at present there is no clear evidence of who is behind the attacks in Transnistria, and that everything is speculation at this stage.
– But if I am to sort the alternatives according to what I consider most likely, I would have said that it is most likely Russian forces that are behind it. Thus come the local groups in Transnistria, who want to keep Transnistria independent or become part of Russia. In third place are Ukrainian forces, before Moldovan activists come last.
The Ukrainian military leadership has stated that the Russian forces in Transnistria are on standby. Ukrainian authorities believe Russia has plans in the area.
– Russia wants to destabilize the Transnistria region and suggests that Moldova should expect “guests”, writes President Volodymyr Zelenskyj’s close adviser Mykhailo Podoljak in a Twitter message.
Several countries are concerned about developments in the breakaway republic.
“The situation is extremely critical,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock Sky News.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss believes the West must strengthen its defenses in other countries threatened by Russia, including Moldova and Georgia.
– If Russia succeeds, it will lead to suffering throughout Europe. It is imperative for the West that Ukraine wins, says Truss.
– Two radio towers in the breakaway republic of Transnistria were blown up on Tuesday this week. It is not known who was behind it. Photo: Ministry of the Interior of Transnistria / AFP
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Putin’s next target?
Russian General Rustam Minnekayev recently said that Russia aims to take control of the entire Ukrainian coast and create a “corridor” to Transnistria.
The general claimed that the Russian-speaking population of Transnistria was being oppressed.
Russia has already tried to take control of Ukrainian territory near Transnistria. They launched an offensive north of Mykolajiv, where the goal was to gain control of an important city and large areas around the port city of Odesa.
– However, things did not go so well with the Russian offensive, and they withdrew. It is now assumed that Russia is primarily concerned with the Donbas. They have no forces left to wage war in other areas, Godzimirski says.
In Moldova, fears that their country will be Putin’s next target have increased following the statement from Minnekayev. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Nicu Popescu recently stated that his country is in a very dangerous situation.
– Our analyzes show that there are conflicts between different forces in the area in the region that are interested in destabilizing the situation. This makes the Transnistria region vulnerable and creates a risk for Moldova, Popescu said The Guardian.
– Nicu Popescu is Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Photo: Alexander Zemlyanichenko / AFP
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– May be the next goal
It is no wonder that Moldovans are nervous about the future when they see what is happening in neighboring Ukraine. However, Godzimirski does not think it is particularly relevant with a Russian offensive against Moldova.
– But it will depend on how things go with the fighting in eastern Ukraine. If the Russians manage to defeat the Ukrainian forces there, Transnistria could be the next target. But it will take a long time before we know if Russia has the ability and willingness to do this, says the NUPI researcher.
He believes Russia had a minimum plan and a maximum plan when they invaded Ukraine.
– The maximum plan was to take Kyiv and perhaps incorporate large parts of Ukraine into Russia. But as the Russians have met with opposition, they have had to concentrate more on the minimum plan, which is to build a land bridge between a Russian-controlled Donbas and the Crimean peninsula, says Godzimirski.
The United States has warned of an escalation in Moldova.
“We are concerned about any potential attempt to escalate tensions,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price, who did not go so far as to accuse Russia of being behind the explosions.
– Everything is possible
Moldovan President Maia Sandu has stepped up security in the country, but is asking the people to remain calm after the Transnistrian attacks.
– We encourage residents to remain calm and feel safe, Sandu said after a meeting of the country’s security council on Tuesday.
– Moldovan President Maia Sandu urges citizens to remain calm. Photo: Olivier Douliery / Reuters
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Transnistria’s security ministry was reportedly hit by a grenade attack on Monday. The building was damaged, but no people were injured.
Sandu believes it is an attempt to increase the level of tension in the region and condemns the actions. Furthermore, the Moldovan president said she had not had contact with the political leadership in Transnistria.
– Does Moldova have anything to fear?
– As I usually say; in war and love and Russian politics everything is possible. I do not think the Russians are very interested in taking Moldova, but if they see that it is possible to achieve something there without too much cost, they can try, says Godzimirski.
– However, I do not think it is at the top of the Russian agenda – it is to gain control of the Donbas and drive Ukrainian forces away from there, so that Putin can present it as a victory.
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