A vaccine against covid-19 can be approved before Christmas time, Minister of Health Bent Høie announced on Thursday. At best, vaccination of Norway’s population can be initiated during 2021. However, problems can arise even with a vaccine in place.
One of the pitfalls was highlighted by the National Institute of Public Health’s (FHI) area director, Geir Bukholm, during a meeting of the Emergency Preparedness Group on 25 June.
“There is also a significant degree of uncertainty about the epidemiological effect of a vaccine, ie the extent to which a vaccine can affect the virus’ adaptation to the host population (humans). The virus comes from a different animal population than humans, and if you follow the virus with sequence analysis studies, there are many indications that the virus has not yet adapted to its population. There are always small changes in the virus “, Bukholm is quoted in a meeting minutes that Dagbladet has had access to.
He continues:
“In the worst case, this can lead to a virus change after an initial good vaccine effect, which can, among other things, mean that the vaccine no longer works.”
Health director Bjørn Guldvog says that it is difficult to predict, and that such a scenario is far in the future.
– In the long run, this can be a concern. There’s a lot we still do not know. There is a possibility that the virus will be more or less eradicated if we get vaccines to a large part of the world. Another possibility is that the virus reappears in slightly different forms, so that we may need to develop slightly different vaccines at a later date, Guldvog tells Dagbladet and adds:
– In the first instance, I think it will be a great help to get a vaccine. There are also new ways to make them, which allows you to attack more specific parts of the virus’ genetic material, and thus perhaps get more effective vaccines with fewer side effects.
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Stable development
Department director Line Vold at FHI points out that the virus has fortunately developed stably so far.
– It has previously been pointed out that after vaccination has started, the virus can change, so that the vaccine has a worse effect. This is a problem that is known from other diseases as well, says Vold to Dagbladet and continues:
– Now it is fortunately the case that the virus has so far been very stable. This is an issue that must be taken into account, but it does not mean that you should not take a safe vaccine when it arrives.
The obstacles
Minister of Health Høie emphasizes that the forecasts for an approved vaccine for Christmas are just that – forecasts. In addition, we have to go through a number of obstacles. For example, Norway must have access to a vaccine, the vaccine must be produced and distributed to a sufficient degree and we must prepare an order for who is to be vaccinated first. Norway must also ensure sufficient syringes and needles.
The health authorities have already set up a working group to work on this.
– We work with many promising vaccine candidates. We work closely with the EU to gain access to vaccines for Norway’s population, as well as through other initiatives to contribute to vaccine access outside Europe, says Høie and adds.
– It is very promising, but in this area there is nothing that is certain until an approval is in place. It seems that there may be a good and lasting solution to the situation, so that we can return more to the society that we remember before this pandemic.
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Optimistic
Health director Guldvog is also very happy with Høie’s news that a vaccine can be approved by Christmas.
– It is very good news. We believe that it is through vaccination that we can regain the life we all value.
Guldvog rejects herd immunity.
– All advice goes in the direction of not going for herd immunity in the population to achieve immunity. There is still too much we do not know about this virus, and it will have major consequences for very many if many become infected. Therefore, it is better to cut down the infection until we get a vaccine.
