After an effective lightning offensive, the Ukrainians recaptured large areas in the east of the country, which were previously under Russian control.
Analysts believe that a Ukrainian victory able to be in sightand it will be in the future difficult for the Russians to regain the initiative.
The question arises again of what a possible Ukrainian victory could mean for Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
– It is clear to many in the Russian elite that Russia, step by step, is heading towards defeat, Professor Pavel Baev of the Institute for Peace Research (PRIO) told Dagbladet.
According to the professor, it all depends on what happens on the battlefield in Ukraine. Each setback creates new political tensions in Moscow.
The professor spoke first Defense Forum.
Russia: – Massive attacks
The next crucial months
In a think tank analysis ISW he says Kiev is now likely to increasingly dictate where and how major battles take place and that Russia will respond increasingly inadequately to the growing pressure.
Unless Moscow finds a way to regain the initiative.
Pavel Baev does not believe in any further “sensational” Ukrainian progress in the east in the coming weeks. The positions of the Russians in the Donbass are too solid for that.
– But in the south, where the Russians are vulnerable, I think we may see new Ukrainian progress during the autumn, he says.
Unlike a number of other military analysts, they believe the war in Ukraine will last several yearsthe professor believes that the time perspective should be shortened – that it is months.
If it ends, as he believes, with a Ukrainian victory, he believes it is only a matter of time before the battle is moved to Moscow.
– That’s where the war started, and that’s where the war will end, says Baev.
sea View
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I think the fighting will continue
Iver B. Neumann, expert on Russia and director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, is more reserved on behalf of Ukraine.
– I think the games will continue. I would say the chances of Putin admitting defeat are zero, Neumann tells Dagbladet.
First, the president must decide how much he wants to respond to Ukrainians’ progress: he can continue bombing, destroy energy infrastructure in Ukraine, or use tactical nuclear weapons.
– Then Putin breaks a taboo, but it really makes a difference, so it makes a difference, says Neumann.
Should the Russian president step down, the researcher believes he will tell a heroic story about how Russia managed to stop Western aggression.
– In other words, he wants to turn the story upside down.
Researchers agree that a possible Russian leak will be a difficult challenge for Moscow.
– But the will and ability of the old despots to oppress their own population should not be underestimated. It will likely be the beginning of the end for Putin, but there is no automatism in removing him, even if the war goes badly, Neumann says.
A slow suicide
Believe in the chain reaction
Baev believes there is a limit to what the Russian regime can suppress. At some point, he believes the pressure will be so high that it will explode.
– It is impossible to predict when and how it will happen, but historically we have seen that it can come suddenly. History also shows many examples of how crises are resolved, many of them very badly, he says.
Such a crisis, with a weakened Moscow, could manifest itself in several ways.
Among other things, the professor can foresee a chain reaction which means that the repressed and unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus can turn into violent clashes.
He also believes that a coup could become a relevant scenario in the event of a serious Russian defeat in the neighboring country. It could also lead to unrest in some Russian regions or disagreements in the army.
– There is really a feeling now in Russia that their luck has changed – that they find themselves in a hopeless situation after a mistake of historical proportions. The reaction to this can come very quickly.
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