Work to move Russian forces to the Donbas is underway. Experts believe that the war will now take place in eastern Ukraine, and that the battle may be different for Russian forces this time.
– Russia has better opportunities to succeed in the Donbas region, says expert to TV 2.
– Prepared in another way
Lars Haga, associate professor at Luftkrigsskolen, tells TV 2 that the Russians now know the enemy better.
– BETTER PREPARED: Lars Haga, associate professor at the Air War School, believes Russia is now better prepared for what awaits them. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– Now they know they are facing a well-prepared opponent. When they started their invasion attempt on Kyiv, they assumed that they would meet little and weak resistance. That was not true, says Haga.
In connection with Russia now deploying forces in the east, Haga says that Ukraine has prepared well by, among other things, placing its best soldiers there.
– There they are also prepared in another way, with trench systems and large amounts of ammunition, he adds.
Strategically good location for the Russians
The fact that the fighting is now taking place in the eastern part of Ukraine on the border with Russia provides benefits to the Russians.
– This is taking place closer to the Russian border, and the supply lines for the soldiers will be considerably shorter. In addition, the Russians control larger areas in the east, and the supply lines are thus less exposed to attacks by the Ukrainians, says Haga.
With better access to weapons and ammunition, the associate professor believes the Russians will fight more systematically.
– They will probably use more firepower, artillery and aircraft to break down and try to isolate Ukrainian defense forces.
Good opportunities
Geir Hågen Karlsen, lieutenant colonel and head teacher of strategic communication at the Norwegian Defense College, also points out that the transport of military supplies will give Russia an advantage.
– Russia has better opportunities to succeed in the Donbas region, says Karlsen.
– INFRASTRUCTURE: Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen is the head teacher at the staff school in the Armed Forces and believes it is important for Russia to now be able to transport supplies more efficiently. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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He explains that most of the military supplies are transported via the Iron Children network to Ukraine. The last part of the transport stage is performed with trucks.
– Russia has faced major challenges related to supplies, especially towards Kyiv. This will be much easier now if they concentrate on Donbas, says Karlsen.
New Russian general
The appointment of the new general, Alexander Dvornikov, will also give Russia greater chances in the future, Karlsen believes.
Until now, several military leaders have been responsible for their respective areas. The fact that they now have one central leader for the forces means that they can prioritize what is important, says Karlsen.
He explains that the forces then have better conditions for good coordination and effective attacks. In addition, they will have the opportunity to better coordinate their flight forces.
– At the same time, they have been at war for over six weeks and suffered heavy losses. It is by no means certain that they will be able to mobilize enough for a victory in the Donbas region, says Karlsen.
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