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Expectation for the dollar after the XL holiday: how much are you trading today?

The clarification came after President Alberto Fernández admitted that he was analyzing what to do with the exchange rate, because the Central Bank’s reserves were in high demand.

Is that some 4 million savers made use in July of the possibility of buying foreign currency at official value plus the 30% surcharge, which consumed about US $ 800 million of the reserves.

Economics said that “there is no measure under study” to strengthen the hold on the dollar.

The team led by Martín Guzmán would have decided to wait until the end of August to define the way forward, because in the facts almost all the foreign currency purchases have already been made, since they usually take place in the first days of the month, they entrusted the NA agency foreign exchange market sources.

“There is no measure under study that goes in the direction of reducing or preventing the purchase of savings dollars,” said sources from the Palacio de Hacienda.

They explained that “those interested in such acquisitions may continue to do so for up to $ 200 a month.”

The President had complained that “people buy $ 200 per month and that generates a very large demand from small savers. Today these small savers are a problem.

They are not so important sums, but they are a problem, 200 plus 200 plus 200 … “.

The Deputy Chief of Staff, Cecilia Todesca, said that “the regulations are a condition of possibility to stabilize the macroeconomy and to be able to give value to production in terms of credits. To turn all the savings of Argentines towards the productive system.”

“I know that the stocks are seen as a punishment, but it is a condition of possibility for stability,” he said.

But from the Economy they said that “not only are they not thinking about restrictions, but they are waiting for the exchange front to stabilize.”

They trust that after the agreement for the debt in dollars under foreign law, there will be less pressure on the exchange front.

The evolution of the dollar

The consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of July cut their forecasts of devaluation of the wholesale exchange rate. According to the data released this Friday by the central bank (BCRA), the market expects the dollar end the year in the $86,4, when previously a value of $88 for the end of the year.

Without yet knowing the agreement for the restructuring of the debt under foreign law, which was confirmed on August 4, analysts estimated that the government will try to keep changes in this very sensitive variable for Argentines limited.

Expectations devaluacion REM.JPG

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Regarding the REM for June, analysts lowered their devaluation projections, mainly for the last quarter of the year. While in the previous survey a depreciation of 4.9% was estimated for October and another of 4.2% for November, in the REM for July the expected rise for October is 4.4% and that of November is 2, 8%.

In this way, the nominal interannual variation forecast for 2020 is 44.4%. In parallel, the projection for the end of 2021 showed a value of $ 123.2 per dollar, which would mean an annual increase of 42.6%.

It should be remembered that, currently, The BCRA is regulating increases in a fairly predictable way of the wholesale dollar, which on this day it closed at $ 72.77. In the accumulated of May it climbed 2.5%, in June 2.8% and in July 2.6%.

However, it does not stop alarming the fact that in the last month, and so far in August, the monetary authority had to sell close to US $ 600 million to keep the exchange rate at the desired levels.

Analysts argue that the deal for the exchange of foreign debt that the government announced this week should mean a relief for the exchange gap and for the demand for dollars.

To reduce this pressure, the Central also corrected again the minimum interest rate for fixed-term deposits in pesos, which is now equivalent to 87% of the Leliqs rate. This measure seeks to give greater incentives to investments in local currency.

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