TO Ladimir Putin warned that Russia reserves the right to withdraw from the Ukrainian wheat deal in case of new violations by Kiev, writes DW. But before that, Moscow returned to it, after threatening to withdraw for two days. Why has the Kremlin never managed to freeze the agreement reached? And did he gain anything from his blackmail attempt?
Erdogan and Putin have agreed on free grain for countries in need
Putin approved the evacuation of occupied Kherson
Russia in an increasingly ridiculous situation
The thesis of the Russian War Ministry did not last even a week. On October 29, he announced that – due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships in the Sevastopol Bay – Russia was withdrawing from the grain agreement concluded with the UN and Turkey, but in fact also with Ukraine. which in turn also has an agreement with Ankara and the UN. At the same time, the Ukrainian side stressed that Russian ships regularly launch missile attacks from the Black Sea on Ukrainian cities.
What’s happening in busy Kherson: calm before the storm
After the Defense Ministry, the Russian Foreign Ministry also announced the termination of the agreement. The Russians withdrew from the Istanbul Joint Control Commission, which was responsible for inspecting ships arriving and departing from Ukrainian ports. But for some reason, no one was afraid of Sergei Shoigu and Sergey Lavrov. Turkey and the UN said they were discussing the matter with the Russians and the grain ships continued to calmly leave Ukrainian ports and head for the Turkish Strait and the Mediterranean as if nothing had happened. But this was already happening without Russian participation in the inspections.
Ukraine plans to liberate Kherson by the end of November
Then Vladimir Putin also howled, who seems to have expected everyone to rush and beg him on their knees to cancel the decision of the “bad guys” Shoigu and Lavrov. However, neither Western leaders nor Volodymyr Zelensky caught this attempt to drag them into a game of good cops and bad cops, and Putin himself – apparently tired of waiting – personally confirmed Russia’s withdrawal from the wheat deal. But his performance never stopped and there were no interruptions.
Zelensky: Russia is trying to turn Kherson into a no-man’s land
And Russia was falling into an increasingly ridiculous situation. Putin himself was already threatening, but nothing was happening. And what he could do: if he had started bombing ships loaded with grain, he would have ruined relations with the Turkish ruler Recep Erdogan, with whom he had just agreed to create a hub in Turkey for the resale of Russian gas in Europe. But Erdogan is also the main intermediary in the resale of Ukrainian wheat. So what’s the point of bombing Ukrainian ports or warehouses with grain, some of which has already been paid for by buyers?
“Wagner” has opened its first branch in Russia
As part of the grain agreement, guarantees had to be provided that Russian occupation troops would not take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian ports had been cleared and attempted to land. But in the meantime the situation at the front is such that one cannot even think of a Russian landing.
Therefore, the most visible consequence of this Russian blackmail attempt is that Russia has effectively lost the ability to control grain vessels passing through Turkish territorial waters. And in this case, it is not at all important whether Putin himself realized it or whether Erdogan reminded him of it. In Moscow, they hurried to do something to try to keep their face clean. And they found it in the Ukrainian guarantees that the transit corridor would not be used for arms deliveries.
Indonesia for talks with Western leaders or Ukrainian President Zelensky, then he has completely failed. Not a single new argument has emerged that would prompt the West to engage in direct dialogue with Putin in Indonesia.
Putin’s man, Prigogine admitted to “Wagner”
All this has already passed: both the threat of world hunger and intimidation with the “dirty bomb”. The EU is even ready to welcome millions of new Ukrainian refugees from cities with infrastructure destroyed for the winter. But there is still time before the G20 summit and we must be prepared if the Kremlin decides to try to create some new negotiation topic.
