COMMENTS
Erna Solberg is about to lose the bourgeois majority in the polls. A new rebellion could spread against the previously so popular star, Dagbladet commentator Sondre Hansmark believes.
Erna Solberg holds a press conference about Sindre Finne’s share trading. Right. Incapacity.Tears. Photo: Lars Eivind Bones / Dagbladet Show more
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Published on Tuesday 10 October 2023 – 21:54
It had to come sooner or later: The Conservative Party has begun to fall in the opinion polls. With that, the bourgeois lead shrinks sharply, and Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has been given a long-awaited respite.
I doubt that it will be the only reason, but the fact that the Conservative Party and Erna Solberg are struggling with a share and integrity scandal cannot possibly be taken out of the equation.
If we compare an average of the measurements so far in October with that in August, the Conservative Party has lost a total of 10 mandates.
A source in a party to the right of the Conservative Party, who will remain anonymous, told me that he has no need for Erna Solberg to step down as party leader now.
But also added: the whole thing could turn around if the Conservative Party is in danger of falling so much that the bourgeois alternative could lose its majority in the opinion polls.
Thus, the bourgeois camp seems to divide into three regarding the Erna Solberg question: Some want her to stay, some want her to go. The group in the middle wants her as long as she is a strong card to play.
We’re not there quite yet. But it is indeed starting to approach a red-green majority in the polls again. The preliminary average for October shows 86 mandates for the bourgeois and 83 mandates for the left.
In September, it was 87 against 82 in favor of the bourgeois. In August it was 93 against 76.
It evens out between the blocks. We may soon experience measurements again where the MDG is on the verge.
The bourgeois advantage has, for the record, not just been on the receding front since the stock case broke. The fact that the Labor Party did better in the opinion polls during the election campaign also helps the case. SV has also increased since the summer holidays.
But it will undoubtedly become closer between the two blocs in Norwegian politics in the future. The Conservatives are now working against the wind, not with the wind.
Right after Erna Solberg’s famous press conference, where she announced that her husband had bought and sold 3,600 shares, Høyre saw no immediate breakthrough.
Now we’ve got a few more measurements to digest. The overall trend of the six measurements taken after the share case became known to the public is that things are going down for the election winner.
In the same way, Erna Solberg is struggling in the prime minister polls which ask voters which of her and Jonas Gahr Støre they want to lead the country.
Previously, Solberg outclassed Støre. Now it’s a dead end. Given that, according to the polls, Støre has been such an unpopular prime minister, it is bad news for Solberg.
These are parliamentary polls. The Conservatives tend to be somewhat higher on them than the municipal polls. So if we compare today’s polls with the parliamentary polls just before the election, the result becomes clearer.
It can of course be about much more than Erna Solberg. It could be that the Conservative Party has now either taken power or is in the process of taking power in many cities and municipalities, and that voters do not necessarily agree with the constellations that arise. Power often costs a number of percentage points in the measurements when the wheat bread days are over – and maybe before that too.
According to a recent BT survey, Bergen Høyre falls by 2.4 percent compared to the election. Then you are down to 23 percent, which is very low for Solberg’s hometown. It is uncertain which of the effects is due to the chaos in the city or Erna Solberg’s share case.
When politicians face bad opinion polls, they use to say that “it’s the election day that counts”. It is a truth with a number of modifications. Election polls play a role in the room for action of party leaders. Parties in the tailwind have self-confidence. Parties against the wind more often face internal criticism and rebellion. For Erna Solberg, opinion polls can be decisive for trust among her supporters.
There are few signs that the Conservative Party will turn against Erna Solberg. But the voters have started to do so, and with that perhaps also the bourgeois parties she wants to support her as prime minister at the next general election.
There is faith and agreement on the bourgeois side – until the Conservative Party falls.
PS
Sondre Hansmark has been elected as the third deputy to the Storting for the Left. He is now employed as a commentator in Dagbladet, deregistered from the party and will, in the event, appear as an independent representative.
2023-10-10 19:56:58
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