Home » today » World » Erdogan turns the wheel: Will his rapprochement with the EU lead to a distance from Russia? – 2024-03-28 19:33:56

Erdogan turns the wheel: Will his rapprochement with the EU lead to a distance from Russia? – 2024-03-28 19:33:56

/ world today news/ On December 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Greece for talks with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The visit is truly historic: it is the second visit of a Turkish leader to Greek soil in 70 years.

The Greeks and Turks have passed through an age of centuries-old enmity.

The Hellenes still cannot forget the capture of Constantinople, just as the Serbs cannot forget the defeat in Kosovo.

Turkey was painfully upset by the collapse of its empire and the Treaty of Sèvres of 1920, which provided for the transfer of Adrianople, the Gallipoli Peninsula and Eastern Thrace to Greece (by the way, Gazprom’s Turkish Stream project extends here).

During the Cold War, the differences were ironed out.

In 1952, Greece and Turkey became among the first members of NATO. An exception is the 1974 conflict in Cyprus, which ended with the invasion of Turkey and the secession of the Turkish-populated northern part of the island.

In addition, the issue of the Aegean islands remained unresolved. The countries were on the brink of war in 1987 and 1996, but NATO membership prevented escalation.

In the early 2000s, the countries moved towards normalizing relations. Turkey aimed to join the EU, which Greece had joined in 1981, and adhered to a policy of “zero problems with neighbours”.

In its own region, however, such a course was stimulated by Turkey’s growing military-economic superiority, the opportunity in the face of the “Arab Spring” to bring “its own” to power, the discovery of gas fields in the Mediterranean, Ankara’s conflicts with the EU/NATO /USA and the waning influence of the West.

Turkey is increasingly relying on force in solving foreign policy problems. The sending of troops to Libya in 2020 and the three military operations in Syria allowed to strengthen its positions in these countries.

At the same time, Turkey’s strengthened strength is becoming its weakness. Because of Ankara’s actions in Syria, relations have deteriorated not only with the US and the EU, but even with its staunch ally Great Britain (it also imposed sanctions after Operation Peace Spring).

In 2020, Turkey, under the escort of its navy, began geological surveys off the coast of Cyprus and in the Aegean Sea.

Turkish fighter jets began flying over Greek airspace. Greece and Cyprus united in an anti-Turkish alliance consisting of France, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, the UAE and partly the US. Turkey and Greece put their armed forces on high alert.

When the pandemic hit, Turkey suffered double-digit inflation and a financial crisis, with no money for wars. And then there was the February 2023 earthquake that nearly bankrupted the Turkish treasury.

Ankara has begun to restore ties with Cairo, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. In short, we’re back to the “zero neighbor problems” policy. Erdogan’s visit to Greece is a continuation of this trend to pacify the region. And Ankara is the initiator.

Greek journalists have not forgotten how last May, when their prime minister asked the US Congress not to sell F-16s to Turkey, Erdogan said that Mitsotakis “no longer exists” for him.

After another five months, the Turkish president threatened: “We may suddenly arrive one night.” Turkish radio stations broadcast these words during Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974.

However, the Turkish president was welcomed in Athens with great pomp. Red carpet, honor guard. The head of the Greek MFA arrived at the Eleftherios Venizelos airport. Mitsotakis and Erdogan are smiling in a joint photo. Everything looked as non-standard as possible.

Journalist from The Guardian Elena Smith drew attention to one nuance. Erdogan “allowed himself to smile more than once, given his well-known penchant for a steely gaze.” The Greek press also followed Erdogan’s views closely.

The comment of the center-right newspaper Kathimerini is interesting. Responding to Erdogan’s words about opening a new chapter in relations between the countries after years of turbulence, she noted: “If differences are resolved through dialogue and common positions are reached, it benefits everyone.”

The press also decided to question Erdogan and recalled the phrase “we can come at night”. The Turkish president decided to reassure the Greeks: “I will tell him this: Kyriakos, my friend, we do not threaten you if you do not threaten us.”

The Greeks were pleased. Political scientist Lucas Tsoukalis believes that the meeting between the two leaders went better than expected.

Judging by the headlines in the Turkish press, it seems that Ankara is delighted with the normalization of relations with its neighbors. The newspaper Hürriyet sees a new era in the signed “Declaration of Good Neighbourhood”, recalling in passing that this was done 100 years after the Lausanne Peace Treaty.

Milliyet called the summit “spring wind in the Aegean region”. Carrar emphasized the benefits for ordinary Turks, who were granted seven-day visa-free travel to ten Greek islands by the Greeks.

Cumhuriyet tried to justify Erdogan’s earlier statements, writing: “Elections are over – good intentions have begun.”

The practical result of the negotiations in Athens is the signing of a declaration of friendly relations and good neighborliness and the easing of the visa regime for Turkish citizens. The declaration is not legally binding.

But the very fact of his appearance shows his readiness to turn another page of hostility and go on the path, if not of friendship and love, then at least of peace.

During the talks between Mitsotakis and Erdogan, many high-profile statements were made, including a series of promises to move “like two captains in calm waters” and the slogan “Let’s turn the Aegean into a sea of ​​peace!”

Perhaps the most objective assessment of the visit was given by Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou: “Acknowledging the fact that there are issues on which we disagree, it is important to maintain a constructive atmosphere.”

As with all such meetings, what matters is what remains behind the scenes. Greece received a guarantee that Erdogan will not start a dangerous war for her and flood her with Syrian refugees, as the Turkish president once threatened.

Turkey can count on the fact that the Greeks will not interfere with Ankara’s European integration and will not create obstacles when discussing the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to the United States.

Calm on the western borders could improve Turkey’s credit rating and attract much-needed investment to the economy.

If we talk about Russia’s interests, then the Greek-Turkish reconciliation can become the final point in the process of rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow. The Turkish newspaper Aydinlik believes that after the talks in Athens, “Turkey has turned the helm towards the European Union”.

How true this is is hard to say. Indeed, in addition to Greece, the EU and Turkey have a number of other contradictions – respect for human rights, Ankara’s position on Russia and Ukraine, the EU’s rivalry with Turkey in the Middle East, not to mention Palestine.

Peace between the two shores of the Aegean Sea will not make Erdogan a friend of the West overnight. There will be fewer conflicts between them, but it is unlikely that Turkey will blindly follow the West’s guidance and lose the benefits of trade with Russia.

Translation: SM

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