The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) remains uneasy about its military intervention in Niger, after the coup against the democratically elected President, Mohamed Bazoum.
Last month, Niger’s presidential guard detained the country’s president, Bazoum, and seized power, drawing condemnation from major world powers and threatening more conflict in West Africa’s impoverished Sahel region, which is already facing a bloody rebellion.
The chiefs of staff of the ECOWAS armies were scheduled to meet in the Ghanaian capital, Accra, on Saturday, in order to advise the organization’s leaders on the “best options” regarding their decision to activate and deploy its “reserve force”.
However, according to regional military sources, the meeting was postponed for “technical reasons”, without revealing a new date, according to AFP.
Analysts who spoke to Al-Hurra website say that the postponement of the meeting “indicates that there are differences within ECOWAS regarding military intervention in Niger.”
“Nigerian retreat”
In his interview with Al-Hurra website, the researcher specializing in African affairs, Muhammad Turshin, said that postponing the meeting to an unspecified date “means that there are differences and divergence of views regarding managing the crisis in Niger.”
In the same context, the researcher in African affairs, Nermin Tawfik, believes that “the difference regarding the position on the military intervention in Niger” is the reason for postponing the meeting.
Tawfiq told Al-Hurra that “military intervention, if it occurs, will make matters worse, and will turn West African countries against it,” referring to the “ECOWAS” group.
On Saturday, Niger’s Foreign Minister, Hasoumi Massoudou, wrote on the “X” platform (formerly Twitter) that “the military option that ECOWAS is seriously considering is not a war against Niger and its people, but rather a security operation against those who are taking hostages and their partners.”
Torchin pointed to “differences in Nigeria,” the country with the greatest influence in ECOWAS. He said, “There is a rejection of military intervention by personalities, the most important of which is the ruler of Sokoto, which is an Islamic empire that was large in the past, including parts of Niger and Chad, and today it has influence and influence on political life in Nigeria.”
He continued, “His statements spoke of his direct rejection of any military intervention (in Niger), and warned that the continuation of the sanctions affects the security and stability of the region. These statements have an impact on Nigeria.”
Consequently, this matter will prompt the Nigerian President, Paul Ahmed, to “regress a lot in moving forward with military intervention, although his country is enthusiastic about this military action, and it bears the greatest burden in terms of material support and the participation of the largest possible number of forces,” says Turchin.
According to Tawfiq, “the country that can intervene militarily with (ECOWAS) is France, and it will do so in order to protect its interests there, but the repercussions of the military intervention will be dire and will complicate matters more.”
Since the coup, the military has targeted France in particular, accusing it of being behind the West African countries’ decision to activate their “reserve force”, in preparation for its deployment in Niger to restore constitutional order, without disclosing a specific timetable for intervention.
France is deploying about 1,500 soldiers in Niger to support the Nigerien armed forces in confronting extremist groups, according to AFP.
American, German and Italian forces are also stationed in the country to counter the rebellion of local groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, which has killed thousands and displaced millions in the Sahel region.
complex stages
Last week, Burkina Faso and Mali considered, in a joint statement, that “any military intervention in Niger amounts to a declaration of war” against them.
This statement, issued by the authorities emanating from two coups in the two countries, included “a warning that any military intervention in Niger would be considered a declaration of war on Burkina Faso and Mali.”
For his part, Turshin said that the statement, “the declaration of war, clearly means that the situation has reached complex stages, and it is not possible to rely on the military intervention approach to resolve the crisis.”
He added, “The West is betting on a diplomatic solution, whether that takes place with Bazoum’s return to power or with new understandings.”
Turchin believes that the best solution is to “find a new formula for choosing a transitional period (to rule in Niger), hold a constitutional referendum and then elections.”
He continued, “The United States is aware that any (additional) pressure or sanctions will directly contribute to unlimited cooperation (between the putschists) and Russia, and complicate the scene, especially with regard to the fight against terrorist groups.”
He pointed out that Washington is “cautious about (military) intervention, because this will contribute to the growth of terrorist groups and the spread of organized crime… Military intervention will not achieve anything, but will plunge the country into very big political and constitutional crises.”
It is noteworthy that the United States recently suspended some foreign aid programs for Niger, after the military junta overthrew Bazoum.
#ECOWAS #postponing #upcoming #meeting #Niger #happening #scenes
2023-08-12 13:09:08