It is a crucial meeting which will be held, Monday, June 29, at the UN Security Council with, on the table, the thorny file of the Renaissance dam, built on the Nile by Ethiopia. Egypt and Sudan fear for their water resources. The start of filling the tank is the source of the current voltages.
Sudanese and Egyptians said on the evening of Friday, June 26, that the filling of the dam would not begin without a signed agreement. The next day, the Ethiopians took everyone by surprise by announcing that they would start filling in two weeks.
Thus, the Ethiopian press release caused confusion. Addis Ababa has announced a start of filling in two weeks, implying that it will start anytime soon, while the Security Council is going to meet and a committee of experts has two weeks to lay the groundwork for a new agreement.
For Ethiopians, it’s all at the same time. “The situation is confusing, but that does not prevent negotiations from resuming and focusing on the outstanding issues,” said William Davison of the International Crisis Group.
Obstacles, indeed, remain. If an agreement is signed, what will be its legal status? What procedure, in the event of a dispute, once the dam is put into service? Or what flow of water during droughts?
Given the sensitivity of these questions, “finding a compromise so quickly seems unlikely,” says Lauren Blanchard. The researcher believes, however, that the African Union (AU), which is taking control of the negotiations, has a card to play. Indeed, Addis Ababa sees the AU as a more neutral interlocutor than the Americans, deemed too favorable in Cairo.
Then, are Ethiopians ready to fill whatever the cost? “A war is unlikely,” said William Davison, but he said the danger would arise if “a miscalculation is made. Egypt thinks Ethiopia is bluffing and won’t fill up right away. Ethiopia believes that the Egyptian threats are not serious. The danger is there, “analyzes the researcher.
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