The carnival celebrants can hang out quietly, the AEX indication is as flat as our frog country.
- European futures are up around 0.3%
- The Americans do nothing and Wall Street is closed today because of President’s Day
- In Asia, all Chinese markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taiwan) are doing well with Alibaba -3.0% and Tencent +1.1%
- The volatility (CBOE VIX Index) is 0.7% at exactly 20.0 around
- The dollar is now also doing nothing at 1.0689
- Gold is up 0.2%, oil is up 0.7% and crypto is keeping the powder dry for a while
Interest rates are waking up with a basis point less, after they surprisingly (?) fell along with equities on Friday.
First this, because there is a very surprising turn at B&S Group. The news is not so much that the annual results are postponed, but that the board is leaving!
Today there is nothing else to do on the stock markets. There is no direction from Wall Street and we do it without numbers. Later in the week, you can expect Q4s or annual results from Besi, IMCD, Wolters Kluwer, Aalberts, AMG, ASR, Fugro, Galapagos and SBM Offshore. Abroad, these are Wal-Mart, Alibaba and Nvidia.
Thanks for the preview, Niels Koerts already looked extensively at Besi, AMG, ASR, Aalberts, SBM Offshore and Galapagos yesterday. The main macro agenda item tomorrow is the first estimates of the purchasing managers indices.
Today, before daybreak, there was all our consumer confidence for February. That improves from -49 to a still poor -44. Let me make this picture as long as possible and notice that we Dutchmen are born whiners and complainers? And of course I can’t resist cycling the AEX (purple) into it as well.
Such a graph of AEX and our ten-year interest rate is perhaps more relevant and it is striking that the two have been increasing on balance for over a month. It’s too early for conclusions.
Fortunately, inflation expectations are falling again, so there is no pressure on interest rates for a while? Nevertheless, these scores are also still much too high for the Fed and ECB, their mandate is 2%.
In any case, the bright spot is that our gas future TTF is back below €50. However, that was still €3 to €5 in 2020. If energy continues to be expensive, there must be consequences for industry and consumers.
Also still too early for conclusions, but perhaps a bright spot: now that the large AEX index weight has already passed through with annual figures, turnover and profit expectations are turning cautiously. Or is this just purely a rising dollar effect?
News, advice, shorts and agenda
The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closing yesterday with assignments for Fugro and Heijmans.
- 08:02 AEX probably starts trading week slightly higher
- 07:51 B&S postpones annual figures
- 07:50 Stock market view: Berenberg lowers price target Alfen
- 07:34 Heijmans gets to work on reinforcement of Lauwersmeerdijk
- 07:30 Fugro receives US offshore contract
- 06:58 Dutchman less pessimistic
- 06:54 European stock markets are expected to open higher
- 06:46 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:46 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:45 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- 19 Feb Featured: Randstad past the cycle peak
- 19 Feb Featured: week in pictures
- 19 Feb Another busy earnings week ahead
- 08:02 AEX probably starts trading week slightly higher
- 07:51 B&S postpones annual figures
- 07:50 Stock market view: Berenberg lowers price target Alfen
- 07:34 Heijmans gets to work on reinforcement of Lauwersmeerdijk
- 07:30 Fugro receives US offshore contract
- 06:58 Dutchman less pessimistic
- 06:54 European stock markets are expected to open higher
- 06:46 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:46 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:45 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- 19 Feb Featured: Randstad past the cycle peak
- 19 Feb Featured: week in pictures
- 19 Feb Another busy earnings week ahead
The AFM reports this shorts:
From agenda:
06:30 Consumer Confidence – February (NL)
06:30 Investments – December (NL)
08:00 Producer prices – January (Ger)
3:30 PM Wall Street closed on President’s Day
16:00 Consumer confidence – February vlpg (eur)
And then this
For those who wake up from carnival, how was it again?
Wall Street stocks ended mixed, weighed down by Microsoft and Nvidia, as investors worried that inflation and a strong U.S. economy could put the Federal Reserve on pace for more interest rate hikes. Read more: https://t.co/kFGY0Z0x9B $MSFT $NVDA pic.twitter.com/W5Hh5seoRe
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 18, 2023
Statistics:
Of the 9 times the Fed raised interest rates in the past 50 years, 7 times a recession came and 2 times it did not.
And realize only in the early 80’s did the Fed raise as much as it does now. pic.twitter.com/57XSzMAVFU— Corné van Zeijl (@stock market analyst) February 20, 2023
And companies are blamed for inflation:
The euro area’s central banks will disclose their first significant losses from a decade of money printing in the coming weeks, heralding a new era of scrutiny and the prospect of taxpayer bailouts https://t.co/SHNZAbJ4Mj
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 20, 2023
The old continent:
As unhinged as the artificial-intelligence arms race seems, it’s another reminder of how far behind Europe lags in tech, writes @LionelRALaurent https://t.co/5MkSfdxTSg via @opinion
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 20, 2023
Go ahead!
Facebook parent company Meta is launching a subscription service that will include a handful of additional perks and features, including account verification badges for those who pay https://t.co/p7qBDVuU8v
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 20, 2023
Alas, a year ago this week:
Ahead of the grim anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world, and the markets, are in a very different place from last February https://t.co/Dgb2FFrZEc pic.twitter.com/5SePFj3aTi
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 18, 2023
And the US now also in hypersonic weapons:
Lockheed Martin gets U.S. Navy contract worth up to $2 bln https://t.co/HVFmfY3v4R pic.twitter.com/XpIzFQerYB
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 18, 2023
Good world, alas…
North Korea fired a barrage of suspected ballistic missiles over three days and issued a warning to the US over joint military exercises.@BloombergTV reports on the latest: https://t.co/KpHc0LeV2J pic.twitter.com/m23Ebtu1eD
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 20, 2023
Have fun and good luck today.
