100 days after the election failure: jail, founding a party or eternal troublemaker: 5 possibilities for Trump’s future
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It’s been 100 days since Donald Trump lost the presidential election. However, he still has fierce supporters and great influence in American politics. Now he is at a crossroads: He could become a powerful kingmaker of the conservatives – or go to prison.
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Usually, all former presidents do the same thing: they raise funds for their party, give speeches for graduation parties, and write their memoirs. But since Donald Trump’s four-year presidency was anything but normal, this should also apply to his future. Will he stay in the headlines? Will he stay in politics? Here are five scenarios for Donald Trump’s post-presidency.
1) Senate Condemnation: Republicans Want To Get Rid Of Donald Trump
Donald Trump has no influence on some future scenarios. The second impeachment proceedings against him have just started, and the Democrats are determined to prevent him from running for political office again.
But even in his own party, among the Republicans, there are voices who want to get rid of him in order to rehabilitate the party. According to a new poll, the majority of Americans would like to see him convicted for inciting the Capitol riots in January. And there are Republicans among those surveyed.
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The Conservatives are divided on their relationship with Trump. But it is unlikely that 17 Republican senators will vote to condemn Trump. And that would be the necessary majority. But the process is still ongoing, and there is a chance the Republicans will want to get rid of their ex-president.
2) Accusations and Offenses: Trump goes to jail
Another fate that is not in the hands of the 74-year-old depends on law enforcement against him. There could be a number of possible lawsuits against him or his companies in the near future. Law enforcement agencies across the country, the Department of Justice, the New York attorney general – allegations against Trump and his family are all under investigation.
Not only do legal disputes cost huge sums of money, they could also damage his reputation. Because Trump is still considered the leader in his party, he has power and his supporters behind him, he is, so to speak, the kingmaker among the Republicans. But that should change if he is convicted, because it would force party colleagues to distance themselves from him.
Things could get worse for Trump when it comes to crimes that result in a potential jail term. Various allegations of tax evasion, fraud and money laundering are already known. And the penalties for this are severe in the US, and after the inglorious end of his presidency, he could have lost his celebrity bonus.
It can be assumed that his MAGA supporters would continue to stand by him and that Trump would portray himself as a kind of political prisoner – but his actual possibilities of shaping politics out of prison would be limited.
3) Escaped from the US for criminal prosecution
Former presidents do travel abroad – but usually not to escape American law enforcement. Donald Trump could see this as a possibility if the allegations against him come to a head. While no state in Europe would exclude him, things look better in other countries: Trump always emphasized his good relationship with Vladimir Putin, and so Russia could offer him protection. Saudi Arabia or Israel could also come into question if one takes an assessment of the “Brooking Instituts“follows.
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However, there is a challenge for Trump: He is guarded day and night by the Secret Service – and this should make an escape much more difficult.
4) Donald Trump, the kingmaker of the Republican Party
Should Trump be acquitted in the impeachment process, then the way would be free for the kingmaker. Despite his critics, Trump has instrumentalized himself as an important leader of the conservatives. In the past five years he has managed to build a personality cult around himself and now has the powerful MAGA movement behind him: people who made him president, who in the past unconditionally believed his untruths, and who proved by storming the Capitol on January 6th that they are ready for much in Trump’s name.
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These supporters are primarily loyal to Donald Trump, not necessarily his party. How much power they will wield after Trump’s presidency can be seen in the midterm elections in two years’ time and in the primaries for the 2024 presidential election. Even then, Donald Trump could still have enough leverage to pass the MAGA votes to a candidate of his choice – or even himself if he runs again.
5) The ex-president founds a new party: the “Patriot Party”
In his last days in office, Donald Trump brought the founding of a new party into play, the “Patriot Party” (German: Patrioten Party), like the “Wall Street Journal“reported. And according to a poll by” Hill-HarrisX “, two thirds of Republican voters would be willing to join this new party. But it is unclear whether Trump will actually realize this idea or whether it is just a powerful threat against internal party critics .
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Because as much as some Republican politicians would like to get rid of Trump – it would be a disaster for the party. Because Trump’s new party would lure the Republicans away from voters: even more conservative, even more extreme. For the Democrats, however, it would be a dream scenario if the Conservatives tear each other apart. Suddenly they would have better chances not only in the swing states, but even in states that had traditionally voted republican before. Because the Trump wing may not be big enough to have any real chances for political office – but big enough to destroy the Republicans’ election chances.
“Politicians cannot keep locking up citizens” – a counter-proposal to the lockdown
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