In Ukraine, the dollar exchange rate until October 24 has chances both to a decrease by 35 kopecks (up to UAH 26 / $), and to an insignificant increase in the range of 10-15 kopecks. The course is influenced by a number of factors, the main of which is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation.
This is stated in material OBOZREVATEL. Experts name three scenarios for the development of the situation in the foreign exchange market: from significant strengthening to smooth devaluation of the hryvnia. In general, the situation will depend on a number of multidirectional factors.
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Dollar decline scenario. RoboForex analyst Andrey Goilov adheres to such estimates. The main reason is the tightening of quarantine. During this period, consumption on the part of the population decreases, and it is possible that soon most shopping centers will work with restrictions. As a result, less currency needs to be spent on importing goods from abroad. And this helps to reduce demand.
Stabilization scenario for at least the next week. Andrey Shevchishin, chief analyst at ForexClub, believes that the rate will be in the already planned corridor from UAH 26.3 to UAH 26.4 / $. At the same time, he notes that both demand and supply will accumulate over the holidays. Therefore, the market may revive, but both factors will compensate each other.
Rise in price to the level of UAH 26.40 / $. TeleTrade analyst Sergei Rodler believes that the most likely scenario is a smooth devaluation. And among the reasons: a reduction in foreign investment in domestic government bonds.
The market shows unusual dynamics
Relatively stable seasonality is observed on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market from year to year. In summer, the dollar becomes cheaper, in autumn it becomes more expensive. In the same year, the forecast for the growth of the value of the American currency did not justify itself. Initially, the majority of Ukrainian experts believed that in September the dollar would move to the level of UAH 27 / $. Later, such assessments were postponed to October. It is likely that devaluation should not be expected this month either.
Due to the historical rise in gas prices on the European market, Ukrainian importers are in no hurry to buy blue fuel at huge prices. The reserves of blue fuel in gas storage facilities have decreased compared to last year.
As reported OBOZREVATEL:
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