Article Summary
An oncoming wave looks very different if you are lying on the beach or standing on a high dune top. And then the fear button also works differently. In that respect, the autumn of 2022 will be different from that of 2021 and 2020.
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Read full article: Will the fear button still work with the next “wave”?
Reading time: 5 minutes
Fascinating Contradictions
To keep myself broadly informed, I follow people with very different views on Twitter about Covid-19. It is fascinating to see how contradictory – also among doctors and professors – the views are.
This was also striking around the authorization of Covid vaccinations for children between 6 months and 5 years in the US. The physician Dr. Leana Wen, who also writes for The Washington Post, reported in that newspaper that he was overjoyed about itbecause she was “finally able to provide her children with the protection she desperately needed” (a verbatim quote).
But you also come across doctors in the US who are completely on the other end of the spectrum. Who are very critical of the authorization process of this vaccine for young children and indicate that the research figures should rather lead to the conclusion that you should not do it. This (English) doctor explains that:
🧵 1/ Dr Clare Craig explains why the FDA should NOT have granted approval for roll-out in the 6 month to 4 yr old children cohort
This trial should have been deemed null and void. The regulators are failing to do their job.
Share widely & follow @hartgroup_org for updates pic.twitter.com/jnfojQ8gCH
— HEART (@hartgroup_org) June 16, 2022
In Germany, the government led by Minister Lauterbach is preparing plans to make face masks mandatory everywhere between October and Easter, according to the Die Welt newspaper.
Federal government is considering a general mask requirement from October https://t.co/QByFKyOfUR pic.twitter.com/gi0YvCGAv9
— WORLD (@world) June 17, 2022
This American IC pediatrician recently had a baby, who wears a mouth-nose mask almost everywhere from about his birth. And this is the buggy he made to protect his child from Covid, equipped with a special HEPA filter.
It is fascinating how opposing views are between the various professionals. And if you see the reactions under these kinds of messages, you see that among the population those contradictions are even greater and more intense. In addition, the influence of those who are in the media a lot and who hold important political positions is great. There are many more Germans currently wearing face masks than in the Netherlands, thanks to Minister Lauterbach. And there are big differences in attitudes between California and Florida residents about the danger of Covid-19 and the response approach.
Anyone who thinks that the people with strongly opposing views can be turned around by research, studies or experience is mistaken. Anyone who claims that there are undeniable objective facts about the seriousness of Covid-19, the extent of LongCovid and the safety or danger of vaccinations is mistaken.
It is astonishing how often “Science”/”Science” is played around, while the ratio is completely dominated by emotion.
And how data proves to say less and less, because in its collection and presentation, the emotion one has or wants to arouse with it plays a major role.
What is a “wave”
The word “wave” alone has therefore acquired a meaning, which differs greatly depending on your own position with regard to fear of contamination with Covid-19.
For example, the word has reappeared now that the spread of the virus appears to be increasing in the Netherlands. More virus particles in the sewage water, more positive tests at the GGD. This phenomenon has also been observed in several other countries, which seems to be related to a new Omikron-mutation.
Portugal (a country with the highest percentage of vaccinated) has preceded us since the beginning of May. But since a week, it has started to fall again. Something that is also the case in South Africa, where it is even winter.
And if you look at the evolution of hospital/ICU admissions in different countries with recent increases in infections, we don’t see any alarming developments there.
In short: yes, it seems that in the Netherlands there is an increase in the spread of the number of infections with Covid-19, but that will not lead to a large increase in patients in hospitals and ICUs in the summer.
This is separate from a much larger problem that presents itself and resembles what has been happening at Schiphol since the end of April. In particular, there are too few security guards active to check hand luggage, so that the queues sometimes take on astronomical shapes. And that is mainly attributed to the great wanderlust of the Dutch, while it is almost solely due to the available manpower. (And that is partly a result of the policy that people were unable / unwilling to continue to pay people during Corona).
And certainly because in the field of the capacity of care and on the ICs do nothing in the context of medium-term planningI wouldn’t be surprised if there are significant capacity shortages in hospitals before the end of the year, whether due to Covid-19, influenza or another virus.
It is about continuing the metaphor of “waves”. Not so much about the height of the wave, but about the height of the sea wall, which determines whether the wave causes damage or not.
And when you’re on the beach, a wave looks much more terrifying than when you’re standing on a high dune top.
Does the fear button still work?
In the past two years we have seen how a large part of the population has supported the government in taking measures that were unimaginable two years earlier. A curfew, a lockdown, the closing of schools. And that was mainly because majorities were afraid of the virus and thought that those measures greatly reduced the risk of getting infected.
People allowed themselves to be vaccinated with vaccines that had not been brought onto the market with all the necessary precautions, precautions that were applied before that when new drugs were introduced. This risk, insofar as it was realized, was considered to be smaller than the risk of becoming infected and experiencing the negative effects of this for a long time or more.
But if the pressure on healthcare increases sharply in the autumn (and that is always the case with the approaching winter), the big question is to what extent that fear button still works to introduce national measures that we have not known since the end of February. .
We have all been through Covid-19 and/or know people around us who have experienced it. Often with (very) limited symptoms. We are also increasingly aware that even if you are boosted, you can still get infected. And that the protection is shorter and less when the fourth, fifth or sixth vaccination is administered.
More and more reports are also seeping through in the traditional media, giving a more nuanced picture of Covid as a disease and the vaccines as a safe rescue. So fewer people will still be able to be addressed on the fear element.
Yes, it is certain that our usual suspects will show up again in the autumn (think of Bonten and Osterhaus and other OMT members) to point out the impending danger. And there will also be pressure from parts of the population to take measures.
But I wonder if this will really work and if we will be subject to new general measures. Such as 1,5 meters away, mouth caps inside, etc. Let alone that we will meekly accept the restrictions in our travel, shopping and relaxation behavior.
Because the various sectors that are given their own responsibility in the plans of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport will also oppose the kind of restrictions that we have seen from last year.
Because if the pressure on care becomes great in the autumn, much more than in the past two years, the government will be pointed to, which has failed to increase the capacity of care or to prepare and implement good emergency plans. .
And that will lead to an additional crisis of confidence, at a time when that confidence is already undermined by the image that people have of the government regarding solving an increasingly long list of problems in our society.
An additional crisis of confidence, which could lead to a composition of the Senate in March 2023, which will further reduce the effectiveness of the board, with all the associated consequences.
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