Brussels / Moscow Russia is a declining power, but it remains dangerous. The North Atlantic Alliance must face this threat decisively and without trying to return to cooperation with Moscow by turning a blind eye to the problems, according to the Russian BBC in a report on a new NATO strategy for the next ten years.
Despite the economic and social decline, “Russia has shown that it is capable of territorial aggression and is likely to remain a major threat to NATO for the next ten years,” warns a report by experts led by former German Secretary of Defense Thomas de Maizière and former US Deputy Secretary of State Wess Mitchell.
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The authors of the report, prepared for NATO leadership to assess the strategy for the next ten years, propose to strengthen the Alliance’s ability to face threats from Russia, expand cooperation with Ukraine and Georgia wishing to join NATO, and prepare for tighter sanctions against Moscow.
At today’s press conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised to continue consultations on the Alliance’s strategy with civil society, legislators, the private sector and the Allies before preparing recommendations for next year’s Alliance summit.
NATO’s latest Strategic Concept of 2010 aimed at a strategic partnership with Russia and did not mention China at all. Everything has changed since then: Russia has rejected a partnership with the West, and China has become a leading power, beginning to threaten the interests of NATO countries, the report said. The 67-page report mentions Russia in 101 places and China in 104. However, the authors put Russia first as an immediate danger.
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The report summarizes the reservations about Russia, in particular the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of part of eastern Ukraine, the occupation of part of Georgia, obstacles to Georgia and Ukraine’s rapprochement with NATO, strengthening in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Arctic, and hegemony in the former Soviet Union. It recalls Russia’s withdrawal from disarmament treaties and the use of war poisons in NATO countries.
According to the BBC, experts recommend that NATO continue to develop a dual policy towards Russia: to face Russia’s threats hard, but to encourage attempts to ease tensions. The Alliance must also assess how dynamically it would respond to Russia’s aggressive actions, for example by tightening sanctions instead of simply extending them. At the same time, it should encourage conciliatory gestures on arms control and risk reduction measures. The authors recall hybrid threats, including cyber threats, and suggest more frequent and regular meetings of politicians, soldiers, experts and public officials on the subject.
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They also emphasize the need to maintain and strengthen the unity of the Alliance on key issues in an atmosphere of geopolitical rivalry. But how to achieve this in practice, experts no longer say, only encourages commitment to democratic principles and allied commitments.
The report does not mention specific examples, but Hungary has blocked the expansion of cooperation with Ukraine and Turkey with Israel. Many also saw the actions and statements of US and Turkish presidents Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a threat to unity, but the report does not directly name them, the BBC added.
The authors urge NATO to be operational even in cases where unity is not achieved: the Alliance should establish a mechanism for coalitions to operate within existing structures to allow Allied countries to conduct Alliance-flagged operations even when not all members want to participate.
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