Ms. Aphaporn Sawangpuck Executive Director The Securities Research Department, DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in the DBSV Quarterly Review Q4 / 22 webinar titled “Seeking New Investment Opportunities. Break through High Interest The Economy Slows” that DBS set the SET index target this year at 1,680 points and the index target next year at 1,750-1,800 points.
In this regard, overall stock exchange investment in 4Q22 received positive factors from the better-than-expected recovery in the tourism sector. The number of foreign tourists entering Thailand this year is estimated to have the opportunity to exceed 10 million people, including some investments from the United States and Europe. investing in the stock market of emerging countries with a strong fiscal position and a well-recovered economy such as Thailand should be one of the investment objectives If there are no serious political problems
while the risk factors affecting investments are US and European economies overview in the second half of the year 65 and 66 at risk of a slowdown. up to regression In addition to being affected by energy, grain and food prices which have the opportunity to rise again from winter factors and the impact of climate variability This has again caused concerns about high inflation. At the same time, interest rates rose significantly during the fragile economy. This leads to higher NPL risk. Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects core inflation to peak in 3Q22, while core inflation is expected to peak in 4Q22.
For an overview of the Thai economy Arpaporn stated that the export sector during the eight months of the year 65 grew by 11%, while the trade deficit reached 14 billion US dollars. due to the import of energy products at high prices. Although Thailand’s tourism sector has recovered, it may not be able to make up for this year’s trade deficit. Consequently, the recovery of the Thai economy is not complete (in curve K).
for Thailand Protests begin to return after the coronavirus subsides. But if there is no serious collision it will not affect much and on the other hand on the basis of the new election campaign make sure that the money spreads better in strategic investments It is advisable to gradually choose and accumulate good fundamental stocks. tends to grow continuously in the long run At the time of the weakening of the share price (When the storm cannot be predicted with certainty had to build a strong ship to support it)
Mr. Sombat Ekkawanpattana, Senior Director The Securities Research Department, DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. discusses the industry overview and strong stocks that can break through high interest rates in a slow economic environment. The dominant segment is the tourism industry. signal recovery It is expected that this year there will be 10-11 million foreign tourists arriving this year and 16 million in the year 66. The stock with a positive result is CENTEL with a target price of 55 baht.
export industry It is an important support for the growth of the Thai economy. The export products that continue to grow are food, agro-industrial, industrial products. with supporting factors Due to the depreciation of the baht, the shipping cost has decreased. An interesting stock is that TU sees a reasonable target price of Bt22.60 with better than expected earnings prospects. It also benefited from the depreciation of the baht. Sales tend to increase This year’s forecasts have been revised upwards by 17% and for the year 66 by 3%.
Mr. Sombat said the communications industry The trend of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is a shortcut to combining technology and cost savings. The trend of “Digital Transformation” offers mobile operators more business opportunities. ADVANC shares differ from the acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF. is an important step In the broadband or home internet industry will earn up to 2.5 million additional customers in the future, able to raise funds through JASIF and also gain a strong 3BB brand Including having a sales team and installation team, FBB has experience. and access to a more comprehensive branded on-board network with a target price of 250 baht
in the medical sector there is a good trend from more foreign patients. After the Covid-19 outbreak, BDMS is a major stock with positive factors from foreign patients with a target price of 33 baht.
Industrial Zone Division Good recovery after the opening of the city in the first 8 months of this year. The main investors come from Japan, Singapore, the United States and still have income from rental services. and services such as industrial water and electricity costs reduce business risks investment in the future The industrial zone will play an important role, such as electric cars, e-commerce, digital platform, robots, while the government accelerates the investment promotion, as the EEC area will recover rapidly, increasing the value of the land. and see WHA stocks stand out
The transportation industry is back to normal, benefiting airlines, airports, electric trains, rental cars, expressways and highways, but container ships and bulk ships are tied to exports. Transport tariffs have weakened. due to normal commercial conditions There has been a progression of large infrastructure projects. Offer for double track railway, electric train, Thai-Chinese electric train It will have good long-term results. Major projects to open next year, such as the pink and yellow line, and progress in various airport projects. Recommend BEM shares, target price 10.40 baht.
Construction industry Larger auctions are planned, the backlog will be significantly higher. Shares of the CK group, with a target price of 25 baht.
Somnuk Chanrasmee, Director of the Securities Research Department of DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said the main direction of the market in 4Q22 remained volatile and mainly weakened. (If there is a rise, it can be, but it will only be in the form of a technical rebound. So it will continue to weaken) with the expectation that the index will be adjusted downwards to test support (sub) at the 1.520- level. 1,500 or 1,450 (1,400) points and then change direction. (Or rebound) followed again.
Mr. Pongphat Siripipat, Deputy Director of Securities Research at DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said the SET50 index will have a rebound. watch out for resistance 963 / 973-970 / 980 If not yet, watch out for entering a new round, a break of 930 will be a signal to continue with the next 900/875 support.
The 2-year US Treasury yield peaked near the DotPlot Fed at 4.4% -4.6%, the market perceived an interest rate hike to some extent. But the stock market is tied to the economy. It will take more than 6 months for monetary policy to take effect. Investing in stocks over the medium term still requires caution.
Gold’s direction is likely to return to break through $ 1,680 / $ 1,700 / ounce. Strong resistance There is momentum forward, but in the short term there is resistance at 1,735 / 1,750 and $ 1,800 / oz. slow down If it’s still positive, it shouldn’t drop below $ 1,680 / ounce. Otherwise there is the possibility of making a new low. while the baht If the break does not have to go down, 37 +/- 0.2 will rise again. and the next resistance 39.5 / 40, if it breaks below, the trend strengthens.
