Covid-19: will the virus become seasonal and come back every winter, like the flu?

Endemic? Kezako?

The Larousse dictionary explains this term by the following definition: “Said of a harmful phenomenon, which rages permanently.”
Influenza, for example, can be described as endemic. Every year or so, it returns and infects its share of people before again going back into the shadows and biding its time.

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Is the epidemic behind us?

A good part of the health restrictions which made it possible to fight against the Covid-19 epidemic will soon disappear. We no longer have to telecommute. Soon, wearing a mask will no longer be compulsory (except in transport), and the vaccination pass will be suspended.

“The circulation is still there, but the numbers are good, the reproduction rate of the virus is less than 1… Thanks to the vaccination campaign and the very high number of infections that there have been, immunity is strong”indicates to actu.fr Robert Sebbag, infectiologist at Pitié-Salpêtrière.

Olivier Bouchaud, infectious disease specialist at the Avicenne hospital in Bobigny, also joined by actu.fr, is also relatively optimistic. He does not fear the lifting of restrictions because “the vaccination coverage is very strong in France. »

If no variant appears in the weeks and months to come, we will exit the epidemic phase.

The Covid, but flu way

So are we out of trouble? Not yet. “It would be a mistake to think that the virus will completely disappear,” confirms Dr. Bouchaud.

According to him, the virus should, in the coming weeks, enter the endemic phase. In other words, if the Covid became endemic, like the flu, it would only disappear from the landscape momentarily, before make appearances again during the periods most conducive to contamination. “Autumn-winter”, predicts the infectiologist.

“This is one of the scenarios mentioned from the start, but the discovery, as and when, of new variants has constantly pushed it back”, adds François Bricaire, former head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at the hospital of la Pitié-Salpêtrière, contacted by actu.fr.

Jean-Paul Stahl, infectious disease specialist at the University of Grenoble, joined by actu.fr agrees: “It is quite likely to say that we should, in the future, enter an endemic phase. But not right now. You don’t move from one phase to another overnight. »

And the same goes for the Directorate General of Health (DGS). She explained to actu.fr that “the hindsight over these past 2 years suggests the endemicity of the virus, with successive waves, possibly accompanied by seasonality”.

“Perhaps regular vaccination for the most fragile”

It is important to note that even if we leave the epidemic phase, the Covid will not be less dangerous. “It will continue to circulate in the submarine”, specifies François Bricaire.

And like the flu, he is still awesome for the most fragile among us: the elderly and the immunocompromised. As of March 8, 2022, in France alone, at least 139,618 people have lost their lives due to Covid.

“It may take regular vaccination for the most vulnerable”, asks Robert Sebbag. “Without that, the epidemic would start just as dry. It is sure and certain, ”insists Jean-Paul Stahl.

Just as it is recommended for people over 65 to get vaccinated against the flu every year, it could be advisable to get vaccinated regularly against Covid. “It is not because a virus circulates less that it is less dangerous”, alert the four specialists.

In conclusion, are we heading towards the end of the epidemic? Yes, except appearance of new virulent variant. Towards the end of Covid? No. For this, it will still take a little (a lot) of patience. And a bit of luck, because we might as well live our whole existence with the Covid.

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