COVID-19 surge in China could kill 1.5 million people

Checkpoints are being removed from city streets. Those who are in charge of enforcing thecovid-zero” are nowhere to be found. in the battle of China against him COVID-19, the state disappeared from the front. For nearly three years, the President Xi Jinping tried to contain the virus, calling their efforts “people’s war”. Now he has surrendered and the people have to live with the enemy.

Xi He is not the first leader to conclude that this fight cannot be won. However, before abandoning its policies of “covid-zero”, other countries fought first administer vaccinations, store antiviral drugs, and develop treatment guidelines. China he had plenty of time to do all of this. Yet more than two years after the first vaccine proved effective, the country remains ill-prepared. This made the opening much more dangerous than it should be.

How dangerous? In the section of China this week we publish our model of how the epidemic could develop. This template comes with essential caveats. Modeling an epidemic is difficult. model one in China, where data is often unreliable, is even more difficult. We consider variables such as vaccination rates, the effectiveness of Chinese injections, the lethality of Covid in different age groups and the number of ICU beds. At worst, we estimate that 1.5 million Chinese will die from the virus in the coming months if covid spreads freely and many people cannot get assistance.

While it is a smaller percentage of the population than in many rich countries, it is still a criticism of poor government preparedness. It’s also a call to action. A vaccination campaign will take months. The government has waited too long to build and staff new intensive care units. But even if the state doesn’t impose lockouts as it prepares, it can mitigate the death toll.

should start with protect the health system. a wave of Covid He’s going down China. According to our model, it will achieve its own culminate in January. At that point hospitals are likely to be embroidered. Beds and staff are a precious resource to manage. That means keeping people who aren’t seriously ill out of hospitals. To do this, the state could help drug companies stock pharmacies that run out of products like lateral flow tests and acetaminophen. First, medical personnel must be vaccinated and provide him with the appropriate equipment to minimize the risk of infection.

A second step is to secure cheap and plentiful supplies of anti-inflammatory drugs. Covid. It has been proven that the Dexamethasone, a low-priced steroid, reduces deaths among the most seriously ill patients. antivirals, like Paxlovid, help keep high-risk patients out of the hospital. These drugs have become part of the toolkit that doctors around the world use to fight the virus. They could save many thousands of lives China. Only the government knows if it has enough. If not, you should start stocking up. Foreign governments would surely send supplies if China I asked. President Xi Jinping You must not let your pride endanger the Chinese people.as it has done by rejecting more effective Western vaccines.

Chinese vaccines still work. So the third priority is to get them into people’s arms. It may be too late for many in this wave, but there will be more. Fewer than half of those over 80 have been vaccinated three times, the number needed for decent protection against serious illness and death. However, some elderly people came to the clinic to get vaccinated and were turned away lack of supplies. Until recently, some vaccine factories were idle. Large quantities will be needed. Semi-annual booster shots should become a regular part of life for older Chinese.

Since the state hasn’t done its job, the people are helping themselves. Masks are ubiquitous in many cities and more and more people are working from home. Restaurants and cinemas may be open, but in the city like Beijing They remain practically empty. All this will help curb the growth of this wave of Covid and will ease the pressure on hospitals. But the government must also act. In a country the size of China, even small measures could save many lives.

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