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Covid-19 reproduction rate: Grand Est passes above the threshold of 1

The number of people infected by an individual infected with Covid-19 has risen above 1 in the Grand Est, as have three other French regions.

Four regions including the Great East have an R0 above 1. (© Public Health France)

Last week there were three. This time, these are four metropolitan regions whose R0 (the rate of reproduction of the virus) goes above 1. If the factor of reproduction of the epidemic has exceeded 1 in the Grand Est and Center-Val de Loire, it has significantly decreased in Occitanie, which has dropped below this threshold.

For the week of June 14 to 20, the virus’s reproduction rate was 1.01 in the Grand Est region, according to the latest weekly report from Santé Publique France.

Read also: Covid-19: the number of patients in intensive care continues to fall in the Grand Est

Below 1, the epidemic regresses

As a reminder, the effective R is one of the four indicators – along with the positivity, incidence and occupancy rates of intensive care beds – which is used to determine whether a territory should pass into an orange or green zone. It indicates the number of people infected by an individual infected with Covid-19.

When the R is less than 1, we can then consider that the epidemic regresses. “When the reproduction factor crosses this threshold, it means that clusters (epidemic foci) have formed, and that they are being investigated”, specifies Public Health France in its assessment.

The R0 in the French regions for the week from June 14 to 20, 2020.
The R0 in the French regions for the week from June 14 to 20, 2020. (© Public Health France)

The Great East is always more affected than the whole country

If we refer to the rate of incidence of the virus on the population, this figure in the Grand Est is established at 5.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the week of June 15 to 21. The trend is downward in a week. The previous week (June 8 to 14), this figure stood at 6.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. However, it should be noted that this figure remains higher than the national average (which is 4.9 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants).

However, the situation remains mixed in several departments. Meurthe-et-Moselle still has a very high incidence rate (16.3) and the Meuse (10.5) but these data are declining. The departments most affected by the first wave, such as Bas-Rhin, Haut-Rhin and Moselle, show incidence rates which decrease week after week. But Public Health France warns:

The virus still circulates in all departments of the region. Vigilance and respect, by all and in all circumstances, for barrier gestures and measures of social distancing, therefore always remain topical.

Sixty households

The Great East counts 60 “clusters” since the deconfinement of May 11 last: a figure increasing from one week to another and which concerned nursing homes, schools, high schools or hospitals.

Recently, the Remiremont high school in the Vosges had to close its doors due to four cases of Covid-19 confirmed among students and staff.

The Regional Health Agency (ARS) and Santé Publique France ensure that all these clusters are under control and some are closed. Under control means that it is possible to identify and screen the contact cases of the first positive case and that the epidemic is not out of control with many multiple contaminations.

False tests for the inhabitants of Meurthe-et-Moselle

The incidence rate has been revised down in recent days in the department of Meurthe-et-Moselle. Due to a large amount of positive tests confirmed in the department, the ARS posted a worrying rebound of contamination in its daily report.

But a hundred false positive tests were discovered due to a technical problem, alerted the Nancy CHRU Thursday, June 26, 2020.

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