di Saber Yakoubi –
With the arrival in Gabon of the train of African military coups, less than a month after the coup in Niger, the failure of Western policies is confirmed, at the center of which is that of France, which has a strong presence in those villages.
French analyst Lionel Laurent states in an analysis published by Bloomberg News that Western chancelleries have not witnessed sudden events outside of their own since the “Arab Spring” times, so much so that “their” regimes in West Africa are falling one by one. They are being replaced by a new generation of young people disappointed by the failure to deliver on the promises of democracy, a reaction that French President Emmanuel Macron has called an “epidemic”.
The significance of the last domino falling in the region, represented by the deposition of Gabonese President Ali Bongo, lies in the fact that instability is spreading beyond the Sahel region. There, the failure of the French-led fight against terrorist groups linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda has unleashed the discontent of the population and encouraged the overthrow of regimes, as happened in countries such as Mali and Niger, through coups state military, which has led to a growing influence of the Russian Wagner Group, which provides its services to many regimes in the country.
Perhaps the failure of Western or African regional organizations, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to prevent military coups and restore civilian rule in Niger and Mali, for example, is what encouraged the Gabon’s army to overthrow President Ali Bongo, whose family has ruled the country for more than 55 years, essentially serving French interests.
What makes the coup in Gabon an embarrassing development for France and its European allies, who have gathered to discuss how to respond to the July 30 coup in Niger, is that there could be more coups in other villages.
Lionel Laurent argues that the direct reason for the coup in Gabon is not the spread of terrorist groups, nor the cumbersome French military presence in the country, as happened in Mali and Niger, but rather the announcement that President Bongo obtained a third term, in a controversial dispute. The electorate is in fact made up of many young people, while the average age of the governors is 63 years.
Consequently, it is fair to say that the celebrations for Bongo’s ouster are motivated by the fact that the Gabonese have finally greeted democracy, that is, they have seen the coup as liberation from tyrannical rule.
As in the history of France itself, generals take advantage of political and economic chaos to seize power, according to Thierry Vercoulon, a researcher at the IFRI think tank, who has defined the current African moment as the “Bonaparte moment”.
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign policy, said that “Military coups are not the solution, but we cannot forget that before the coup there were elections in Gabon, full of irregularities.”
All this explains the ambiguous reactions: Paris condemned the coup, while the administration of US President Joe Biden called on the military council that took power to preserve civilian government.
In the meantime, many African leaders will be looking around anxiously, fearing a repeat of the Niger-Gabon scenario. In Cameroon, the ninety-year-old president Paul Biya, in power since 1982, has decided to change several army chiefs. Senegal, whose president has announced that he will not run for a third term, is preparing for presidential elections next year.
