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fromPamela Dörhöfer
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shut down
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British researchers are warning of a second wave of coronavirus disease, like the Spanish flu, and are calling for a lockdown by 2022.
- Can a second Corona wave only prevent when Block contact be held up in the long term?
- Suspect that Epidemiologists the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
- On Lockdown by 2022 is unrealistic – however, the researchers have an alternative proposal
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The scenario is anything but a good mood: keep a distance of one and a half to two years from other people, no close sitting in pubs or bars, no parties, no events with hundreds or thousands of participants. Who recommends something like this? The considerations come from England: British epidemiologists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suspect that a second wave of Covid-19 can only be prevented if long-term exit restrictions and contact closures are maintained or at least intermittently repeated.
After all: effective drugs against Covid-19 and sufficient capacities in the intensive care units of hospitals could improve the situation, the researchers around Stephen M. Kissler and Marc Lipsitch concede. Her study was published in the science magazine.
Fear of second corona wave – Spanish flu was in three waves
A report in the Deutsches Ärzteblatt also provides references to an earlier study by epidemiologists in 2007. In it, the scientists dealt with the Spanish flu. This great pandemic of the past century had run in three waves between 1918 and 1920. How Covid-19 it was transmitted by droplet infection, like today there was no vaccine or effective medication. And played back then quarantine and Lockdown played an important role in containing the epidemic, and these restrictions were handled in different regions – with different effects on the number of infected people. According to estimates, it cost Spanish flu around 50 million people worldwide.
For their current calculations, the epidemiologists drew the behavior of two others Corona viruses with the names HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. Both are harmless relatives of Sars-CoV-2, they cause colds and circulate mainly in the winter months. The scientists come to the conclusion that at Covid-19 A second disease peak can only be prevented if the restrictions in everyday life remain valid for a long time, preferably until 2022.
Curb corona virus: lockdown unrealistic by 2022
When it is after exiting the current one Corona lockdowns a second wave could arise, the British researchers depend on how long the restrictions apply. Your calculation: If the measures are ended after eight weeks, the number of infections could rise significantly again in midsummer. A three-month lockdown, according to the scientists, should expect a second wave in late summer; after a 20-week break in public life, the time would have come in winter. According to the British calculations, the more effectively the reproductive rate of the virus was reduced by the currently applicable restrictions, the more violent the second wave could be – unless one could hold out until 2022.
A study published in Science argues that ‘intermittent or prolonged social distancing ’will be necessary through the end of 2022. If true, then the economy will not normalize in the foreseeable future. Instead, some sectors & activities will disappear.https: //t.co/Oi01xKr9Ne pic.twitter.com/JFnQh6BMkN
– BusinessCouncilBC (@BizCouncilBC) April 16, 2020
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The reproduction rate R tells how many people one Corona infected infected on average. Basically, the lower the value, the better. If the reproductive rate is over 1, an infected person infects more than another person on average – this increases the number of new infections every day. If the rate is less than 1, an infected person infects less than another person on average. In Germany, the reproduction rate on Tuesday after Easter was 1.2.
Because perseverance Corona restrictions By 2022, for several reasons, it was unrealistic and the effectiveness among scientists was controversial. You can see this in the interval-like reintroduction of the lockdown with increasing numbers of infected people.
Coronavirus pandemic: vaccination could end
There are, of course, many unknowns in the calculations of the British epidemiologists: First of all, the uncertain number of people would be one Coronavirus infection have already gone through to name. The higher it is, the less dramatically the numbers are likely to skyrocket if there is another wave. So far it is still unclear how the rising temperatures in the northern hemisphere affect this Sars Coronavirus-2 will impact. Virologists’ assessments vary.
The widespread harmless corona cold viruses circulate especially in the colder months of the year, some scientists therefore assume that too Sars-CoV-2 will weaken in persistent warm weather. In this case the pathogen could come back like other cold and influenza viruses in autumn. Then it would be another Covid 19 wave of diseases coming, the coincidence with the annual flu season could have particularly serious consequences.
Only one thing seems certain at the moment: vaccination could provide a clear end, which would then also be available to the entire world population.
Rubric list image: © Getty Images
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