Experts warn of the most dangerous convergence
Estimates of respiratory viruses for this winter are not the best. Everything points to what coronavirus, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus will present together the next few months, what it can shake — even more — the viral ecosystem.
Everything can happen. One virus can prevail over others, as happened with COVID-19 last winter. Two viruses can dominate, or there can be a coexistence between the three. “There is no indicator that tells us what is going to happen. Respiratory viruses have had an erratic behavior during the pandemic ”, he explains to The country Juan García Costa, vice president of the Spanish Society of Virology.
Due to the decline in the pandemic and the removal of some of the restrictions against the coronavirus, it is not known with certainty what will happen this winter. In the last months of 2020 the flu almost completely disappeared due to measures such as the use of a mask. Now, winter is uncertain: “This year we are in a kind of darkness”, declares García Costa.
The southern hemisphere, an example to anticipate the flu
In this way, the countries of the northern hemisphere observe the winter evolution in the southern hemisphere to estimate how it will appear in the northern cone, although this year will be more complex due to different situations through which different countries pass in health matters.
“The countries of the southern hemisphere are different, but some can serve us as a model because they are also in a plan of anticovid measures. In these countries, the flu virus has not circulated significantly ”, explains Toni Trilla, head of Epidemiology at Hospital Clínic de Barcelona. The first results they have not registered too much presence of flu, like Australia, which has not notified an alert for a lot of flu, according to El País.
“This virus is unpredictable, but practically its winter has ended without incident. India is the only one that has issued a high flu alert, but there they do not have seasonality. It is impossible to know if it will circulate in the northern hemisphere”, Concludes Trilla.
Possible reduced immunity to influenza
According a report from the UK Academy of Sciences, the low presence of influenza during the last two years could represent a reduced immunity against her. According to another study, published in the journal Vaccines, the theory it can come true this winter.
“After a low intensity flu epidemic due to a mild winter, 72% of upcoming epidemics tend to be more intense and more severe than average, starting 11 days before and causing 40% more cases on average. This phenomenon occurs because, during warm winters, the rate of flu transmission is less than usual And that implies the natural immunization of fewer people. Therefore, create a larger group of susceptible individuals during the next season due to a drop in herd immunity, ”the study notes.
Despite this, some experts indicate that this is just a scenario, in many cases unlikely. Tomàs Pumarola, head of Microbiology at the Vall d’Hebron Hospital in Barcelona, believes that a rebound in the flu is “difficult”, since “We have many years of experience with the flu virus and we all have antibodies.”
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