Coronavirus in Argentina. The Government, facing an unprecedented social experiment

One hundred days of quarantine in Argentina

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The quarantine trio had spent three hours the day before polishing the measurements. There is a strange internal dynamic that is beginning to develop. Alberto Fernández dedicates hours to his specialty, seeking agreements, while Rodríguez Larreta entertains Kicillof with statistical details, a weakness of both. They became familiar with the exchange, an almost anthropological mystery. Deep down there is a convergence of mutual interests.

All three feel alone in the face of an absolutely unprecedented experiment: that of a suffocated society, with an economy in disintegration and a hopeless global situation.

So this time they spent a lot of time both reviewing infection data and evaluating the possible impact of the measures on people. Health and social psychology at the same table. They are afraid of the “Sampaoli effect”, of giving directions in the face of indifference.

The other health question that the week left was the abrupt nervousness due to the level of occupation of critical beds, which according to what is explained is 54% in the AMBA. The first severe steepening of cases exposed the limitations of the health system, even after

100 days of quarantine

which had among its objectives to strengthen the structure of care. According to specialists, at this rate of contagion in 20 days the system would collapse.

Omar Sued,

one of the doctors who advise the Government, assures that “it is always difficult to control the virus only from the health system, without stopping circulation.” The infectologist also ensures that in two weeks of strict isolation, the circulation rate can be reduced by between 60 and 70%. The success of that strategy depends on Argentina not going in the way of Chile, after being one of the countries in the region with the lowest mortality rate. The specialists trust that it is still possible to avoid it.

An underground movement

Sociologists, political scientists and pollsters admit that

Argentina experiences an underground social movement that is very difficult to listen to.

Much more complex still is to forecast how it will express itself. At the confluence of being fed up with confinement, despair over the already evident effects of the economic crisis and doubts about the President’s true political leadership, a question seems to emerge about the level of government representation. Fear of contagion inoculates for now the risk of outbursts or significant popular reactions, but the discomfort can be channeled through the sum of small individual disobedience or anomic attitudes, especially in the middle and lower-middle classes of the AMBA, which is feel less contained. Argentina went through many crises, but never since social networks exist.

Rodrigo Martínez, from Isonomía, has measured, like other consultants, that Alberto Fernández maintains a high approval rating thanks to the pandemic (in general, around 70 points) and, also, that it declined in recent weeks (about 12 points). ). But the most interesting thing is that he maintains that “it is a mistake to think that the crack was broken thanks to the pandemic. The pandemic was an excuse that helped the President to dilute the binary scenario, and his successful management in health matters led him to think that he could thus achieve a truce with hard Kirchnerism and an alliance with moderate opponents. ”

However, health concerns and economic deterioration began to pierce that bubble and to replace uncertainty about management capacity. For example, the evaluation of Alberto Fernández’s possibilities of controlling inflation dropped 18 points. Episodes such as those of Vicentin show that the fracture remains below and that in a week the dialectic “food sovereignty” versus “Chavista Venezuela” can be rearmed. A certain fragility in the construction of albertista moderation is exposed in these circumstances.

The same happens to Rodríguez Larreta, who also has a high level of approval (bordering 65%) and shares with the President 30% of the electorate. That 30% supports the moderation of both leaders, many of whom probably voted Macri in 2015 and Fernández in 2019, and today are in no man’s land. Political scientist Andrés Malamud is convinced that “the anger of those who do not feel represented by the supply of parties, partly disenchanted by the illusion of the emergence of a moderate Albertism, especially affects the opposition.”

For the first time nor

Cristina Kirchner

ni

Mauricio Macri

They are the figures with the greatest acceptance of their spaces. But the diagnosis is glassy because society is organized under a polarized scheme and the two former presidents retain a large symbolic capital in that matrix. So they were both very active.

The vice president has in recent weeks displayed her menu of priorities in the Senate. Completely oblivious to the pandemic, it approved the investigative commissions of external debt and the

Vicentin case.

He also took control of the eavesdropping from the Supreme Court. The issue of espionage is crucial in his strategy of annihilating his successor. “It is a soul in sores”, it is portrayed with kindness by an official legislator, who admits that the judge

Federico

Villena

It is functional for this operation, although at the same time it doubts its technical credentials (“it is said that the AFI always enters the Lomas de Zamora judges because from there jurisdiction is exercised over Ezeiza, the airport and the prison”, illustrates the deputy who knows “the lady” closely).

“The Senate marks the hard policy of the Government, which belongs to Cristina, the project of power forward. On the other side is management, the executive agenda where Alberto and the ministers are. Deputies is more intermediate, between management and politics “, classifies an operator very close to La Cámpora. Cristina was turned on by the setback in the Vicentin case and plans to use the parliamentary committee as a tool. She considers the expropriation battle to be lost and thinks that the President had no conviction to advance. “When we nationalized YPF we went with everything and we stayed with the company,” he commented this week to contrast. Just the example that Alberto himself highlights in privacy to demonstrate that he acts with other manners.

On the other side of the spectrum, Macri is also active again. He consulted public opinion numbers, was interested in the perception of his image and checked his thoughts with some interlocutors. He says that he can be a unifying factor for the opposition, although he does not clarify whether as a candidate or as a voter. It also suggests that the crisis can severely affect Alberto and Larreta. And as he passes he lets his anger show through

María Eugenia Vidal.

The drag problem for Cristina and Macri is that they no longer have the numbers to win on their own, because the intermediate sector of society that defines the elections rejects extremes. And Alberto Fernández and Rodríguez Larreta build legitimacy on a pandemic, whose dynamics no longer govern. For this reason, a tremendous problem of representation is superimposed on the tremendous health and economic uncertainty.

For Alejandro Katz, “there is an uncertainty of what the Government wants to do with this country. Society does not want a confrontational or authoritarian leader, but it is not clear what kind of power we have. We do not know if the Government seeks to maintain a real spirit of agreement or if it is a trap. Today nobody seems to be in a position to lead the enormous complexity of this moment “.

Alberto Fernández exhibited a successful driving style in the first stage of the pandemic, but is suffering from premature wear. And not only because of the perception in one sector of society that its power is dependent on Cristina (it had dropped from 80% to 55% between December and April, and now it has risen to 65% again). There are also management deficits that worsen over time. The difficulty to concretize is a worrying characteristic. After the year-end emergency law, he piled up unfinished projects and pushed back much-sued decisions. It only adopted palliative measures, which are also running out. Businessmen and union leaders are desperate for a transition guide to deal with the crisis, but they do not receive an effective call. In the last few weeks they have devoted themselves to the practice of catharsis. Until the debt resolution is dangerously late, although they say in the presidential environment that he ordered

Martín Guzmán

close the deal in the next few days. You are not in a position to face a setback on that plane.

A sharp and frequent interlocutor of the President maintains that Alberto Fernández “does not believe in driving because it is difficult for him to define a north. Basically, he continues to be a chief of staff, and that is why he follows the agenda that reality is setting for him.” A friendly deputy is more forgiving and says he “doesn’t make decisions, he makes decisions.”

In the coming weeks, he will be exposed to the historic challenge of comparing the effectiveness of his leadership with one of the most severe crises that Argentina has experienced. Opposite he is observed by a society that shows signs of autonomy.

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