Coronavirus: evidence of spread at the end of 2019

The UCL research team emphasized in the journal “Infection, Genetics and Evolution” that it could not determine the exact starting point of the pandemic. However, they found clues as to what the virus had spread to in Europe before January. The Chinese authorities first informed WHO of the new lung disease on December 31. So far it has been assumed that it only spread in Europe from January.

“Our results are consistent with previous estimates and suggest that all genome sequences (of the virus, note) have a common ancestor towards the end of 2019, suggesting that this was the time in SARS-CoV-2 jumped over to people, ”says the team. However, the researchers excluded hopes of some that SARS-CoV-2 would have spread earlier and that this would result in a greater infection. The worldwide infection rate is a maximum of ten percent, Francois Balloux, professor at UCL and study author, told CNN.

Great genetic diversity in severely affected countries

Analyzes of smears from more than 7,500 people with Covid-19 also revealed that almost 200 recurrent mutations in the virus had been discovered. In any case, it could possibly be recognized by how the virus develops as it spreads, the researchers said. Balloux said that much of the virus’s genetic diversity is known to be found in the worst hit countries by the pandemic.

“All viruses usually mutate. Mutations in themselves are not bad, and there is nothing to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 mutates slower or faster than expected, ”said Balloux. However, it cannot be said whether it became more or less deadly and contagious.

Frenchman fell ill in December

A study of French scientists published on Monday previously suggested that there might have been a case at the end of last year. A French hospital had re-tested old samples from pneumonia patients and discovered that on December 27, they treated a man who had Covid-19.

The 43-year-old from near Paris had a dry cough, fever, fatigue and severe breathing difficulties in December, he told BFMTV on Tuesday. A lung infection was diagnosed in the hospital. You couldn’t tell him what he had – just that it would be very serious, said the man. After a few days, he was able to leave the hospital.

WHO calls for the examination of old cases

The WHO is now calling on other states to check similar illnesses for a coronavirus infection from the end of 2019. It is possible that even more patients with alleged pneumonia turn out to be early cases, said WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier on Tuesday.

Lindmeier described the positive coronavirus test in France at the end of December as “very interesting but not surprising”. Nevertheless, the picture is completely new. The findings would help to better understand the “potential circulation of Covid-19”. Detecting early cases would help the world get a “new and clearer picture” of the outbreak. When asked about the generally accepted origin of the virus in China, Lindmeier said it was very important to investigate.

In December, the Chinese city of Wuhan had had mysterious lung diseases that were initially not recognized as infections with a new virus. People from Wuhan may have unconsciously introduced the virus to France and other countries while traveling in December. “It is quite possible that other previous cases will be discovered in other countries if tissue samples are now tested for the virus afterwards,” said the WHO spokesman.

Probably brought in by travelers

The case now discovered in France also supports the theory that the virus could have been introduced at the end of last year. The man himself had no ties to China and had not traveled abroad before becoming ill in December. But his wife works in a supermarket near the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris, where many travelers shop. She did not fall ill – she may have been an asymptomatic case – but may have brought the virus home.

The US government, in particular, has accused China of deliberately withholding information about the virus, thereby contributing to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19 pathogen. She also speculates that the virus may have originated in a laboratory in Wuhan.

Intelligence agencies don’t believe in laboratory accidents

Western intelligence agencies consider the theory of a laboratory accident as the origin of the pandemic to be “highly unlikely”. The US news channel CNN cited three sources on Tuesday, which contradicted the corresponding suspicions of US President Donald Trump and most recently US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about the new SARS-CoV-2 virus.

“It is highly likely that it occurred naturally and that human infections occurred through natural human-animal interaction,” the broadcaster quoted one diplomat. China had also rejected the theory. Comments in Chinese state media saw a strategy by the US government to blame China for distracting from its own failures in the pandemic.

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