The arrow has turned and Europe is again seeing an increasing trend of infection. The Delta variant is making rapid progress – also in Norway.
OSLO (Nettavisen): For almost three months, infection rates in Europe have been declining. This is no longer the case. The more contagious delta variant contributes to the development, but the WHO also points to increased mobility and more contact between people.
Also read: NIPH: Almost one in three new corona cases is due to the delta variant
FHI points in particular to social gatherings and believes that it is a matter of weeks before the delta variant is dominant in Norway as well. Last week, it accounted for 31 percent of cases.
Cyprus, the United Kingdom, Spain, Georgia, Androrra, Portugal, the Netherlands, Kyrgyzstan, Luxembourg and Russia are the countries in the WHO’s Europe region that lead with the highest infection pressure now, Cyprus with 1127 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, the United Kingdom with 589.
Will dominate in a few weeks
– The increase in infection in some countries in Europe, and also outside Europe, is believed to be related to the more contagious delta variant that is becoming increasingly widespread. We assume that it will also be dominant in Norway in a few weeks, says department director Line Vold at the National Institute of Public Health to Nettavisen on Wednesday.
She says the increasing vaccination coverage in Europe contributes to the fact that most countries do not currently see any increase in hospital admissions.
– We would like to have even more people protected by vaccines before the delta variant becomes dominant in Norway, says Vold and encourages everyone to accept the vaccine and find time for vaccination time even if they are called during the holiday.
FHI’s weekly report 14 July
- The weekly report shows a decrease in reported cases of infection in week 27 (10 per cent).
- Last week, there was an increase in the number of reported cases in Oslo, Innlandet, Vestfold and Telemark and Vestland. In other counties it was either stable or declining.
- The incidence of new hospital admissions and intensive care units is still low. 14 new hospital admissions have so far been reported in week 27, after 17 in week 26 and 20 in week 25.
- Mathematical modeling shows that the trend in the spread of infection has been flat or slightly declining with an average reproduction figure from 15 June of 0.8 (95% CI 0.6–1.1). With a more uncertain model that does not take into account hospital admissions, we estimate that the reproduction rate a week ago was 0.9 (95% CI 0.7–1.2).
- The number of confirmed cases with the Delta virus variant (B.1.617.2) has increased from a total of 50 cases up to week 21, to now a total of 792 cases up to and including week 27. Most cases are related to major outbreaks that originate in various import events . The proportion of Alfa variant, which was previously over 90%, is in the last four-week period down to approx. 68%. At the same time, the proportion of confirmed cases with Delta variant has increased from 1% to 18% (highest proportion in week 27 by 31%).
- (Kilde: FHI)
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Also read: Medical association rages against relief: – Puts caution on the shelf
– The virus will exploit this
WHO points both to the delta variant, but also to other factors as the cause of the increase in infection in several places:
– There are several reasons, but the introduction of the delta variant contributes, but also the fact that in the summer we see increasing mobility and we see countries that ease the restrictions and that people come together in small groups, even if they have not been vaccinated. The virus will take advantage of this, said Catherine Smallwood, Head of Emergency Management at the WHO’s Europe Office, til Channel 4 News earlier this week.
She pointed to social gatherings of all kinds as the main reason, such as meeting at home, going to the pub or going to a football match with thousands of others, such as during the European Football Championship this summer.
NIPH about when the risk is greatest
Line Vold at the National Institute of Public Health reminds that everyone must still follow the infection control advice, have a low threshold for being at home and testing themselves for symptoms and accepting vaccination when the offer comes.
– Can we join that party, that sports event, that festival without worrying?
– There is the highest risk of infection with the corona when we meet closely over a long period of time, and especially if social gatherings and parties take place indoors. Shouting and singing also contribute to an increased risk of infection. The outbreaks we now see in Norway are largely related to social gatherings, and this is also reported from other countries. The increase in infection is primarily among young people where vaccine coverage is still lower, and many have increased contact with others and more close contacts now after the relief in measures in many countries. Travel activity can also contribute to increased infection, especially when traveling between countries with different infection pressures. Travel activity can and does help spread new strains of the virus. The risk of further infection after travel is reduced with various risk-reducing measures, says Vold in an e-mail response to Nettavisen.
Also read: Over 1,000 new infected in Los Angeles for the fifth day in a row
A threat also for the vaccinated
The coronary vaccines give us better protection, but experts point out that the virus is not gone and that the infection is increasing sharply in other parts of the world.
David Nabarro, the WHO’s special envoy for corona cases, has told BBC Today that new virus variants also represent a threat to those who have been vaccinated. “We have to take it seriously,” he said Sky News.
Also read: Denmark: Infection rates and hospital admissions increase
Warns the British
The WHO has pointed the finger at plans for a rapid reopening of British society.
David Naborro says the pandemic is still spreading with great speed around the world and we believe we have almost been through the worst, reports NTB.
“I accept that vaccination has changed the overall picture in the UK, but from any perspective it is too early to talk about widespread relief or freedom when the outbreak curve is so steep,” Nabarro told Radio 4 in the UK on Tuesday.
London does not let go of the bandages
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has told the BBC he will not expose passengers on the subway, buses and other public transport to the risk of removing the bandage with the relief coming on 19 July. The bandage order has been in place in England for the past year. Now, according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it will be replaced by a recommendation.
“We know from the government’s own advisers and from the WHO that bandages indoors reduce transmissibility,” Khan said. BBC. He says personnel from Transport for London (TfL) will, if necessary, deny passengers access if they do not wear a face mask.
Norway: Delta is one of three cases
In Denmark, where the delta variant is now dominant, there are reports of both an increasing trend of infection and more hospital admissions. The number of newly confirmed cases has shown a clear rising trend since the end of June.
– Now we are over 1000 infected again, the newspaper reported Berlingske Tidende Tuesday.
On 7 July, the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) estimated that the delta variant accounted for a share of 13 per cent in Norway. On July 14, they estimate 31 percent, almost one in three cases.
The number of confirmed cases with this virus variant has increased from a total of 50 cases up to week 21, to now a total of 792 cases up to and including week 27.
Most cases are related to major outbreaks that originate in various import incidents, it is stated in the weekly report from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
Deltavarianten
The delta variant (B.1.617.2) of the coronavirus was first discovered in India and has since spread to the rest of the world.
According to the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark, the delta variant is approximately twice as contagious as the alpha variant. Their Norwegian colleagues are more cautious about putting figures on this, but say there are indications of increased infectivity for Delta, but that the figures are uncertain.
The European Infection Control Agency (ECDC) believes that the infection will increase during the summer and that it will particularly affect unvaccinated people, such as children and young people, when the summer holidays are over.
ECDC believes that we will see an increase in hospital admissions, also among fully vaccinated, but that we will not see the same development with more serious disease courses as last time, due to the ever-increasing vaccination rate and that the risk groups have now largely been vaccinated.
(Source: Statens Serum Institut and Folkehelseinstituttet)
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