Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 16

How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock every week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphs to visualize the progression of the epidemic.

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Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 9
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 2
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 26
Coronavirus barometer as of October 19
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 12

The number of new cases of Covid-19 decreases in Ile-de-France

After a vertical progression since mid-September, the number of new cases of Covid-19 had almost stabilized the week of October 26 and started to decrease the week of November 2, going from 54,784 positive tests to 42,930 This trend is confirmed on the first days of the week of November 9th.

Warning : the data for the week of November 9 only concerns the first 4 days for the moment but gives hope for a decrease in the number of new cases.

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Monday’s peak continues to decline

Monday’s peak is also an encouraging indicator. From day to day, in fact, there is a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests carried out on weekends. These peaks were evidence of the vertical increase in the number of cases up to October 26, with 6,900 cases on October 5, 8,500 on October 12, 9,800 on October 19 and 13,180 on October 26. This peak began to decline on Monday, November 2, dropping to 11,700 cases, then to 7,083 cases on November 9.

Note that in absolute value of course, the number of cases continues to increase, but this suggests a decrease in the number of patients within a few weeks, if the trend continues.

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The positivity rate is declining

The positivity rate is also declining, dropping below 14%.

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Nationally, the 7-day rolling positivity rate (therefore slightly different from the day-to-day positivity rate) was 16.9% as of November 12, with large regional disparities. It is currently the most affected region of Lyon.

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and no longer only at the departmental level. See the map below.

Number of tests down

The number of tests carried out each week in Ile-de-France has also decreased since the week of October 26. After reaching a high of 262,114 in the week of October 19, it dropped to 2,014,930 in the week of November 2.

Warning : in the graph below, the week of November 9 only takes into account the figures until November 12, i.e. the first 4 days.

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Read also:
Screening for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France instructions for use

Regional incidence rate decreases

In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, fell from 451 (from 23 to 29 October), to 410 ( from October 30 to November 5) then 232.5 the week of November 6 to 12.

At the national level, it is 282 per 100,000 inhabitants, against 457 the previous week. The highest rate is in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region, although it is also decreasing, from 871 to 530.

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer only at the departmental level. See the map below.

The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all the departments of Ile-de-France

The decrease in the number of positive cases between the weeks of October 26 and November 2 concerns all departments.

Warning: the week of November 9 only includes the first 4 days.

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Progression of positive cases in children under 20

In terms of age group, the over forty now represent more than half of the positive cases. The 20-29 age group represented 15.91% the week of November 2, declining steadily since the end of August, when it had climbed to 37%. On the other hand, those over 90 years of age go from 1.14 to 1.54% of those tested positive between the weeks of October 26 and November 2.

The age groups that increase in proportion are the under 20s. The 0-9 year olds go from 2.28% to 3.25% of positive cases, and the 10-19 year olds from 10.61% to 12.63%.

Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. (Data for the week of November 9 is only for the first 4 days)

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Please note, the week of November 9 only includes the first 4 days.

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The number of people newly hospitalized begins to decline

The number of new hospitalizations begins to decrease, from 3,781 the week of November 2 to 3,046 the week of November 9, a decrease of 19.4%.

Recap of the last few weeks. After having jumped the week of September 14 and decreased the week of September 21, the number of people entering hospital due to Covid-19 has slightly resumed its progression since the week of September 28 in an increasingly sustained manner the week of October 5, reaching 1,957 people the week of October 12. The number jumped the week of October 19 to 2,860 new hospitalizations, up 46% over one week, and continued to grow in the week of October 26 with 3,490 new hospitalizations, a further increase of 22%. The increase is still strong the week of November 2 with 3,781, an increase of 8%. The week of November 9, however, the number began to decline, dropping to 3,046 new hospitalizations, down 19.4%.

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The number of returns home remains lower than the number of new hospitalizations

The number of hospital discharges nevertheless remains lower than the number of new hospitalizations.

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The total number of people hospitalized continues to increase

At this stage, hospitals therefore continue to fill up with Covid patients.

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The vast majority of hospitalized patients are over 60 years old

According to the latest regional epidemiological bulletin from Public Health France, published on November 10, the proportion of hospitalized patients over the age of 60, as of November 4, was 80%, and 72% in intensive care or intensive care.

Source: epidemiological bulletin of November 5

Download the latest epidemiological bulletin

The number of intensive care admissions decreases

The number of people who entered intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France decreased for the first time with 558 new admissions the week of November 9 against 637 the previous week.

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Characteristics of patients in intensive care

In its latest regional epidemiological bulletin, Santé Publique France details the comorbid factors of patients in intensive care. He notes that the average time between the onset of signs and admission to intensive care is on average between 9 and 10 days. Regarding comorbid factors, obesity appears first, which concerns 80% of patients.

The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 begins to decrease

After reaching a peak of 1,138 on Wednesday, November 11, the number of patients in intensive care or intensive care for Covid-19 is decreasing for the first time in Ile-de-France. This Sunday, November 15, it stood at 1107. This decrease allows to stay below the symbolic bar of 1200 intensive care beds planned in Ile-de-France, outside the white plan. In order to increase the number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services have currently deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity. If the recession continues, the other services will therefore be able to start rescheduling their operations.

Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France had exceeded that of the start of confinement. It was 294 on March 18. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8, with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.

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Read also:
Ile-de-France: reconfinement instructions for use
Coronavirus in Val-de-Marne: progress report with Eric Véchard (ARS 94)
Val-de-Marne: how emergencies face the 2nd wave of Covid-19
Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France

10,032 people have died from Covid-19 since March in Ile-de-France

The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital exceeded 10,000 in Ile-de-France, standing at 10,032 this Sunday, November 15. It was 9,493 the previous Sunday, or 539 more people in one week against 448 the previous week. figures now correspond to those at the start of containment.

(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).

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The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region. In this second wave, the peak was observed on November 9 with 113 deaths.

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Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 16

The number of new cases of Covid-19 decreases in Ile-de-France

Monday’s peak continues to decline

The positivity rate is declining

Number of tests down

Regional incidence rate decreases

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all the departments of Ile-de-France

Progression of positive cases in children under 20

The number of people newly hospitalized begins to decline

The number of returns home remains lower than the number of new hospitalizations

The total number of people hospitalized continues to increase

The vast majority of hospitalized patients are over 60 years old

The number of intensive care admissions decreases

Characteristics of patients in intensive care

The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 begins to decrease

10,032 people have died from Covid-19 since March in Ile-de-France

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The number of new cases of Covid-19 decreases in Ile-de-France

Monday’s peak continues to decline

The positivity rate is declining

Number of tests down

Regional incidence rate decreases

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all the departments of Ile-de-France

Progression of positive cases in children under 20

The number of people newly hospitalized begins to decline

The number of returns home remains lower than the number of new hospitalizations

The total number of people hospitalized continues to increase

The vast majority of hospitalized patients are over 60 years old

The number of intensive care admissions decreases

Characteristics of patients in intensive care

The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 begins to decrease

10,032 people have died from Covid-19 since March in Ile-de-France

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