The strong advance of infections is increasing the pressure on hospitals, which now receive more than 150 new covid-19 patients every day.
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Between October 4 and 10, according to the Numbers of Sciensano in Belgium an average of 5,057 people per day become infected with the corona virus. That is almost twice as many as in the previous 7-day period. On Friday, October 9, Sciensano had 7,030 infections, a record.
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By way of comparison: Belgium now counts daily roughly the same number of infections than Germany, one country with seven times more inhabitants. Over the past 14 days, our cumulative number of infections was 467 per 100,000 inhabitants. With the exception of the Czech Republic (521), nowhere in Europe is the virus so fierce, learn data of the European Center for Disease Control. For comparison: the Netherlands, where Rutte premium on Tuesday evening drastic measures announced, is at 387.
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The fact that considerably more infections are now being detected is not due to a correspondingly increased number of tests. The number of samples has increased in recent days, to almost 42,000 a day. Of all tests, 11.7 percent – almost one in eight – turns out to be positive. That figure is on the rise and indicates a stronger circulation of the virus.
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The Sciensano knowledge center follows the evolution of new infections on the basis of the seven-day average instead of daily values. For example, the weekend effect is smoothed out and the data can be supplemented with test results that the labs only supply after a few days.
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The trouble spots
Sciensano uses a flashing light system, whereby the light switches to orange if more than 20 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants have been reported in a municipality in the past seven days. If the number of new infections then increases for seven consecutive days, the light turns red. This is now the case almost everywhere, especially in Brussels and Wallonia:
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Last summer, viruses arose in Antwerp and Brussels. They are still visible on the map. Mostly the situation in the Brussels Region – where the cafes have been locked for a month – remains serious. But clusters are also forming in the south of the country. The virus is on the rise, especially in the provinces of Liège and Hainaut.
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The new infections mainly affect people under the age of 50, which is very similar to the start of the epidemic in March.
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Trace test
It is important to know who gets infected and where because the virus is found worldwide to spread through small explosions that can set everything on fire again without extinguishing. That is why it is crucial that the government continues to focus on the test-trace insulation strategy. It must first be possible to test for potential contamination on a large scale.
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Because testing is on a large scale – recently about 40,000 people per day – the positivity ratio offers us a good compass. Sciensano calculates this ratio by comparing the number of positive tests against the number of tests performed. In Belgium, this ratio is more than 10 percent, with large regional differences.
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The detection rate of positive cases shows that the virus is indeed on the rise, but there is not immediately cause for panic. The figures are mainly used to follow the evolution of the pandemic because it is difficult to compare with March. The positivity ratio was at its peak at 30 percent at the end of March, but then, due to scarcity, only people with clear disease symptoms were tested. Testing is now much broader.
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Sciensano has recently also announced the number of tests per province and the Brussels Region. Antwerp tests the most, but expressed per inhabitant no more than the Brussels Region. Brussels, Walloon Brabant, Hainaut and Liège stand out with 17 to 20 percent positivity ratio, while Limburg and West and East Flanders remain around 6 percent.
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The situation in hospitals
The strong increase in infections for weeks is now clearly visible the hospital statistics: an average of 152 patients are now admitted. 1,621 people are in Belgian hospitals with Covid-19. That is the highest level since the end of April, albeit still considerably less from almost 7,000 at the height of the epidemic. 281 patients are treated in intensive care. That is the highest level since mid-May.
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Deaths
Not only the direct but also the indirect impact of the virus – people postpone vital treatments – plays a role. It is certain that more people died than average in recent months. This excess mortality peaked in our country during the week of March 30. Then there were 2,087 more deaths than normal, or an excess mortality rate of 105 percent. After that, the figures dropped back to their normal level and there was even a slight under-mortality.
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The graphs for this article are updated every weekday around 8:30 am.
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