A Guide to the Covid-19 Daily Stats. With a few bright spots, such as a weakening influx into hospitals.
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The classic three-stage corona missile (infections, hospitalizations, deaths) remains grim, but in contrast to the lightning-fast advance in October, it shows some encouraging signs. Between 4 and 10 November, according to the Numbers of Sciensano in Belgium infected an average of 6,213 people per day hit with the corona virus. That is a decrease of almost half compared to the previous seven-day period. Since the start of the pandemic have now more than half a million Belgians tested positive.
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Infections pass through it more selective testing however a less accurate picture than before.
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More unambiguously positive: the increase in hospital admissions – which follow with a delay in the number of infections – has turned around: an average of 486 per day, a quarter less.
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From deaths – who in turn respond with a delay to hospital admissions – remain very high at an average of 201 per day (+ 20%). Although the rapid advance seems to have stopped here as well.
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Important: The reproduction number (R) dropped below 1 this week for the first time since the beginning of September: 100 infected people now infect an average of 84 others. An R below 1 is crucial to contain the virus.
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From the end of September to the end of October, the contamination figures in our country rose from one record to another. The daily figures have only declined slightly for a few days. In any case, the situation is different from the spring. We dive into the numbers with you.
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Virus circulates slightly less strongly
We are testing much more than in the spring. The limited testing capacity – in April the number of tests fluctuated between 5,000 and 10,000 per day – was mainly for those who showed clear symptoms. Today we test much more broadly, so it has recently become no longer tested everyone because the labs can no longer follow.
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In the meantime, the virus is circulating much more strongly in Belgium than in the summer. We can deduce this from the proportion of positive tests, the so-called positivity ratio. A high positivity ratio – the World Health Organization (WHO) set a threshold of 5 percent in May – suggests many undiscovered cases and a too rapid spread of the virus. A low ratio indicates sufficient testing and possibly slower spread.
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The percentage of positive tests in Belgium increased rapidly in the autumn, but the peak is now behind us. From 2 percent in early September to a peak of 30 percent to now on average 22 percent. But major regional differences remain.
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Sciensano uses a flashing light system, whereby the light switches to orange if more than 20 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants have been reported in a municipality in the past seven days. If the number of new infections then increases for seven consecutive days, the light turns red. This is now the case almost everywhere, especially in Brussels and Wallonia:
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The virus has gained a foothold in Belgium this spring, among others by returning skiers. Back then, people in their forties and fifties in particular tested positive. After that, the coronavirus mainly affected people over 60, who ended up in hospital en masse. From the summer onwards, the virus circulated in people younger than 40. Today, the scale leans more towards the more vulnerable group of elderly, which immediately explains the rapidly rising death toll.
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Pressure on care remains high, but is limited
Steals still end up many people in the hospital due to the effects of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus is caused. On average over the last seven days, this is now 486 (-25%). The increase in the influx has now stopped, one of the ‘bright spots‘that virologist Steven Van Gucht discovers.
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So bright spots, but the overall picture remains dark. 6,762 patients have now been hospitalized. Still a lot, but a clear decrease compared to Tuesday’s record (7,487). 1,457 patients are treated in intensive care. That is still close to a record high, but the advance has also come to a halt here.
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Yet here too the situation cannot simply be compared with the first wave. Now hospitals are taking in covid patients much faster than in March and April, when hospital beds filled at a very high rate. With a strict lockdown the government has been trying for two weeks an imminent surprise to prevent. The measures seem to be working, but in order to spare the concern we will have to be patient for a long time before the rules can be relaxed again. Van Gucht was certain: “It goes without saying: celebrating Christmas will have to be done in the small family circle.”
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In the leisurely summer months, a federal spreading plan was developed to safeguard regular care as much as possible during new corona outbreaks. This means that hospitals keep a certain percentage of their beds and their places in intensive care free for covid. In phase 0, this concerns 15 percent of the beds in intensive care units and four times that in the nursing ward. In subsequent phases, each hospital reserves 25 percent (phase 1a), 50 percent (phase 2a) and 60 percent (phase 2b) of the beds in intensive care units.
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Intensive care under more pressure
So become today nearly 1,500 people in intensive care treated. That is more than two thirds of the maximum 2,000 beds that are provided for corona patients. They are spread all over the country. The distribution provides an accurate picture of the pressure on hospitals. With the caveat that there are hospital networks that work together across the provincial borders, this creates a slight bias.
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The figures show major regional differences. The situation is particularly dire in the Brussels Region and the provinces of Liège and Hainaut.
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14,106 victims
During the past seven days, an average of 201 people died from the disease every day, resulting in the toll since the start of the pandemic to 14,106. In comparison: Germany, with seven times more inhabitants, telt 12,378 covid-19 victims since the start of the pandemic.
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Overall, we find that Covid-19 is more deadly to old people. More than half of the deceased are over 85s.
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Not all deaths end up in the corona statistics. In order to know the real impact of the deadly coronavirus in Belgium and to be able to compare it with that in other countries, excess mortality is a much more correct indicator. That is the number of extra deaths compared to the average of the previous years.
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During the first week of April, at the height of the first wave, more than twice as many people died than in previous years. Even now it is expected that more people than usual will die. Here too: the greatest toll is on the over-85s, the age group where more people have died than expected since spring. Conversely, in the youngest group up to the age of 24, fewer people die almost consistently this year than expected, partly because there are fewer road accidents.
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