The coronavirus situation in Germany currently seems to be easing somewhat. But virologist Christian Drosten is now urgently warning of a second wave.
- The latest Corona numbers from Germany are hopeful, but Virologist Christian Drosten warns before one second virus wave.
- According to the expert, the reason for this is two background effectsthat have not yet been considered, but could soon have fatal consequences.
- He outlines a troubling forecast that this is Corona virus could hit hard again.
- Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. You can also find current case numbers in Germany here as a map *. The following recommendations for corona protective measures * are currently available. The most important thing about the topic is also on our brand new Facebook page Corona News. Become a fan now.
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Update April 23, 2020: In his NDR podcast, virologist Christian Drosten reaffirmed his fear of a second wave of corona in Germany. In this context, he criticized the current easing of the measures. “I regret it so much these days to see that we are about to squander this advantage completely”he warns. “We are one of the very few countries worldwide where the numbers are declining. And we are the country with the largest population and the clearest news situation among these countries. ”
Politicians are now loosening the measures – prematurely from Drosten’s point of view! “Now we suddenly see that shopping centers are busy again and are full of people, because every shop has an area of less than 800 square meters. As an exception, I have to express some opinion in this podcast. ”Angela Merkel has a similar opinion and sends a warning to the federal states: You are walking on“ thinnest ice ”. Another health expert sees it similarly and finds the discussion about further easing “completely wrong”.
Virologist Drosten warns of a second violent corona wave – “With a force …”
First report April 21, 2020: Berlin – The first extreme coronavirus * wave of infections seems to have waned in Germany. According to current information from the Robert Koch Institute lay the Reproduction rate R, the number of people infected by a corona infected on average at 0.9 on Monday.
It has dropped below the critical value of 1. But before the Germans weigh in false security, virologist Christian Drosten * from the Berlin Charité warns in his regular NDR-Podcast before one possible second wave of infection, the could strike with full force.
Also read: “Totally erased from our collective memory” – When tens of thousands in the FRG died of a pandemic
Coronavirus: Drosten rates the decline in reproductive numbers as positive – but also warns
Drosten rates the current number of reproductions very positively. That a person infected with corona infects less than another person on average means one Decrease in new infections and thus a first step towards Curb the Corona Pandemic. The expert believes that the easing of the measures * on Monday is obvious, but they are also worrying him. “Of course it is the case that politicians do not assume that the R value will rise above 1 again,” says Drosten. “The question you always have to ask yourself is: Can we have overlooked something? If so, what could that be? “
In concrete terms, Drosten also wants that to be the case Virus despite previous success so to speak “under the covers of the measures” redistributed unnoticed *, says a report by Focus.de.
When I spoke this passage last week, it was not clear to me how much the current distance measures are now being questioned on all sides. At R = approx. 1, the virus spreads under the blanket of the measures. Even now. https://t.co/FFfuCBeGEe
– Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 19, 2020
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According to Drosten two diffusion effects Occurrence: Local and age-related diffusion:
Coronavirus: Drosten sees two background effects that could cause problems for Germany
- Local diffusion: Especially at the beginning of the pandemic in the Federal Republic local virus hotspots such as the district of Heinsberg. However, by rapidly minimizing contact *, the heterogeneous concentration of cases was frozen, so to speak. This stood out on the map on the one hand, strong and, on the other hand, hardly any places affected by the virus from. The striking ones can now also be seen local hotspots of the initial introduction can still be recognized. However, what Drosten says is not yet included in the numbers are the cases that were dragged into other regions in the background. For example, by visiting or traveling anyway, or by having certain meetings under exceptions.
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- Age-related diffusion: At the beginning of the pandemic, the corona virus was transmitted particularly by the young and middle-aged population Older people are little affected at first been. However, Drosten sees a “slow spread over time into older age groups, which we have not yet noticed exactly “. Accordingly, he fears that already Infection chains among older people * exist. Possible reasons for this could be that you have made an appointment with acquaintances or that your grandchildren have visited.
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Coronavirus: Drosten fears “epidemic activity in disproportionate way”
Excesses of these two background effects are not yet to be seen in the figures. But: “If the Reproduction value * again over 1 should go up suddenly Disproportionate epidemic activity and way again because of the local distribution, ”warns Drosten. The virologist is particularly worried that “the people who will then appear everywhere in Germany as newly infected are no longer the 35-year-olds, but suddenly the 70-year-old and his social contacts, who may also be in the age group.”
Then the expert becomes particularly clear: “Suddenly you have one Stunts of a wave of infection within a month that you didn’t expect“He predicts. With regard to the intensive care units of the clinics as well, such an effect could be accompanied by stress “in a way that is not currently expected”. Drosten makes it clear that such a development is not speculation for him. “These are Diffusion effects that are almost inevitable. I expect that this will happen – and that we will suddenly have to reassess our old experiences in Germany and maybe no longer have time for this reassessment. ”In the meantime, all German states have decided to wear a mask in certain situations. Can this counteract a wave of infection?
How deadly is the corona virus really? * A look at the death numbers provides information. In the subsequent podcast episode, the virologist warned against not wasting Germany’s “lead”.
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.
Rubric list picture: © AFP / MICHAEL KAPPELER
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