The US is facing a health collapse. Your president is still considering easing the measures soon.
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Trump’s tweet may have been a tactical move. Photo: EPA
President Trump has indicated that he could rethink the self-isolation requirements imposed in the fight against the corona virus early next week. “We cannot allow the drug to be more harmful than the problem itself,” Trump tweeted. “At the end of the 15-day period, we will decide which direction we want to go.”
On March 16, the U.S. government advised all Americans not to stay in groups of more than ten people for 15 days. In addition, Washington recommended that citizens work from home and as little as possible in shops and restaurants. According to media reports, the US president is urgently looking for a way to at least somewhat cushion the dramatic economic damage caused by the corona crisis. A relaxation of the isolation rules could help.
However, there are also significant problems. Many states have passed stricter quarantine regulations than the United States government. In California, for example, a strict curfew applies to all 40 million people – more than ten percent of the US population. The metropolis of New York is also largely under quarantine. Other states have less strict rules, but all schools and universities are closed, and many private companies are closed too.
Collapse can hardly be prevented
All of these requirements have been met by state governors and local authorities. Trump can’t just pick them up. In addition, politicians in areas particularly hard hit by the corona crisis, such as California, New York or the state of Washington, are currently trying to hammer the opposite message into their heads: stay at home so that you don’t infect even more people!
Because the hospitals in these regions are slowly reaching their capacity limits. And there is no end in sight: the number of infections and deaths is rising steeply, New York is now considered one of the world’s corona hotspots. A collapse of health care can hardly be prevented in some areas.
Many U.S. governors are therefore more likely to kneel Trump to finally use the Defense Production Act of 1950 to force private companies to manufacture the missing products. So far, the White House has relied on voluntariness. The last thing the local crisis managers need at the moment is a president who suggests on Twitter that all isolation rules could be softened in a few days.
A similar conflict would then arise between the White House and the medical authorities. Most experts in the American government support the current isolation rules.
Like 1929 or worse
However, it is also not entirely clear how to interpret Trump’s tweet – both the content and the timing. On the one hand, there are increasing voices in conservative circles in the USA that doubt whether the forced standstill of large parts of the US economy will cause irreparable economic and social damage in the long term. Even now, tens of millions of people have lost their livelihoods due to the prescribed closings.
Economists speculate about an unemployment rate of 20 or 30 percent, and a slump in economic growth of a similar amount. The consequences of the Corona crisis would thus far exceed those of the Great Depression in the 1930s. It is therefore entirely conceivable that Trump had this scenario in mind when tweeting and, like many right-wing commentators, simply considers it unacceptable.
On the other hand, it is also conceivable that Trump’s tweet – dropped shortly before midnight on Sunday evening – was a tactical move to provide the equity markets with a calming sounding message on Monday morning.
