By Tessa Wong, BBC News Asia Digital reporter
Chinese diplomat Wang Yi and Russian President Vladimir Putin
Over the past year, Western leaders have tried to convince China to join them in ending the war in Ukraine. And now, while the Chinese government has given the clearest response yet, it’s not what many in the West wanted.
China has so far presented two policy papers. The first is China’s way of resolving the war, and the other is a plan for world peace. This is a rehash of China’s argument from last year, calling for respect for sovereignty (Ukraine), protection of national security interests (Russia) and opposition to unilateral sanctions (by the US).
Western countries will not be impressed by this. In the first place, however, China probably does not focus on persuasion from the West.
China’s Goals: A Clear Message to America
First, China clearly aspires to be the arbiter that shapes world peace. One policy document states that China will be involved in the so-called “Global South” (developing countries that are biased toward the south of the world), such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. is clear.
China is trying to win over countries watching how the West handles the Ukraine crisis by offering a different vision of the world order than the US-led one.
On the other hand, sending a clear message to the United States is also one of China’s goals.
“It’s also a bullish message,” said Dr Aleksander Korolev, an expert on China-Russia relations at the University of New South Wales.
“Even if the US-China relationship deteriorates, we have a hand. Russia is not isolated. That means China is not isolated even if there is a conflict. A warning is embedded in China’s stance.”
The timing of China’s move is also a clue to its intentions, experts say. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated to unprecedented levels due to the alleged reconnaissance balloon riot. Some question why, if helping end the war is really China’s goal, why is it only now embarking on a major diplomatic effort to bring peace to Ukraine?
Korolev said, “China has had many opportunities for leadership and has been called upon early on to contribute to the end of the war…if it shows its image as a truly global leader. If that was the goal, there was no need to stand by from afar for a year and try to maneuver through diplomacy.”
A third goal may appear in Mr. Wang’s itinerary.
Wang visited the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Hungary, whose stances on Russia were relatively less hardline. Mr. Wang may have been trying to see if he could draw some of Europe to China’s side.
image provided, Getty Images
Mr Wang with Hungarian Foreign Minister Sijart Peter
The Chinese government sees a “logical convergence of interests” in these countries. That’s what Zhang Xin, associate professor of international politics and economics at East China Normal University in Shanghai points out.
“While the United States has hegemonic power, Beijing believes that much of the trans-Atlantic region is better off cut off from the U.S. system of hegemony.”
But it is questionable whether China can achieve this goal. Mr. Wang’s speech at the Munich Security Conference criticized the United States, but his words were not well received at the conference, which was attended by America’s staunch allies. Some diplomats said that it only increased their distrust of China’s true intentions.
Andrew Small, a senior fellow on Europe-China relations at the German Marshall Foundation, a US think tank, said, “Mr. There is no problem, there is a problem between China and the United States, China can work with the Europeans to solve the problem, and you should understand that the United States is taking Europe with it on a dangerous path. ‘, he emphasized to Europe.”
“But I think the message was not very well received in most parts of Europe,” Small said.
The important question is whether the Chinese government will be able to keep its promise to become a peace broker while strengthening its ties with Russia.
China publicly expressed anger at the criticism. But behind his closed door, Mr Wang made it clear to European Commission Vice-President Josep Borrell that he would not supply arms to Russia.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, looking back on the year in 87 seconds
Borrell said Mr. Wang asked, “Why are we worried that China might provide arms to Russia when we have provided them to Ukraine?”
The remarks made clear that the Chinese government really believes that it is the West that is fueling the war. Several analysts point out that.
“Providing weapons to any party to a conflict will lead to escalation. This is the attitude of the Chinese government so far,” Dr. Zhang said.
There is also the opinion that China will not provide weapons to Russia because China’s provision of weapons to Russia is not in line with China’s national interests.
Providing arms to Russia would be seen as a clear escalation of war, subject to sanctions and disrupting trade with the West. This would be a big loss for China, whose main trading partners are the EU and the US.
Also, with global tensions so much worsened, America’s allies are likely to move even closer to the United States. That would invalidate China’s plans to pull some countries away from the United States.
Analysts say China is likely to continue or even step up its indirect support for Russia. For example, they are moving to further expand bilateral trade, which has become a financial lifeline for Russia, and not to participate in sanctions against Russia.
Small of the German Marshall Foundation said China could even provide dual-use technology via third parties such as Iran and North Korea to help Russia “in the most undeniable way possible”. Point out.
But as the war drags on, the issue of providing lethal weapons will resurface, Small warned.
“Before, there was no need for resupply on the part of Russia, so it was not yet a question how important Russia could make demands of China. But now Russia has come to that time. How long will China say that it will not provide weapons to Russia?
Days before the invasion of Ukraine began, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that “friendship knows no bounds.”
A year later, China must answer what and how far it is willing to go for its special friend.
