/View.info/ Surprises are like ideas. In advance, no one can imagine any strange idea or concept. But after the fact, everyone thinks it was obvious. Such as the concept that GERB will support a PP-DB government. Or like the concept that Vanya Grigorova has a great chance to reach a runoff in Sofia.
Think it’s weird? And if it isn’t?
Distracted by the political clashes at the national level and gazing into our own social media bubbles, we sometimes make the mistake of judging election campaigns by our personal perception of certain issues. The right approach is to try to put ourselves in the place of the voters and to understand the communication tools and their impact from their point of view. A campaign is not just about presenting correct theses. Anyone can do it. In campaigning, it is important to convince groups of people that a candidate is “their guy” who they can trust and vote for.
A few days before the elections, a plateau trend or even a drop in support for almost all candidates for mayor of Sofia is noticeable. Against this background, Vanya Grigorova’s campaign has the potential to increase the number of voters for her. Yes, unfortunately, while many people are having fun on social networks with her messages, while the rulers are arguing with each other, Vanya Grigorova has the potential to take much more than predicted by political scientists and her opponents.
I say “unfortunately” because Vanya Grigorova’s messages are nothing more than an amalgam of empty promises and false nostalgia for socialism and nationalization. Nationalization, suspension of concessions, expulsion of companies, the municipality leads and manages everything, centralization of the budget, municipal control over decisions and actions of municipal officials, etc. I.e. instead of having the concessioned Sofia Water, we will have the municipal Heating.
But, although Vanya Grigorova’s ideas are straight out of Lenin’s books, her campaign has potential. Some arguments:
The vision: at all meetings and all media appearances, Vanya Grigorova builds the image of a person from the people, she is that “one of them” in these elections, she started from the bottom, she was a cleaner, she rose through work, slowly and gradually. She is the “Borisov of 2023” with a slice of fat and contempt for IT. While the rest, including Anton Hekimyan, look like bland imitators of Vasil Terziev, or at least Kiril Petkov’s students in Harvard courses.
The messages: Vanya Grigorova talks about people’s problems, sympathizes with people’s problems, sleeps with people’s problems. But for possible solutions it does not enter into complex constructions such as funds, sustainable development or diversification of the temporal development of domestic pollution. She has only one solution to everything – The municipality takes everything back. Whatever problem is put before her, she immediately gives a solution – the Municipality takes everything back and we fix things together. It’s like it’s 1954. But such a message is clear, understandable, catchy, and pulls a particularly sensitive emotional connection with the complex “ah, how good it was once upon a time’. Grigorova’s “nationalization” is like Borisov’s “highways”.
The meetings: Vanya Grigorova knows who her target groups are. That is why it is in “Sofia’s bedrooms”. It’s not on the yellow cobblestones, it’s in the neighborhoods. Where the working people are. And she, as a trade unionist, takes care of the workers. Where people have simple problems. And she can take care of them. Where people want to hear simple solutions. And most often they want to hear only one thing: “The State/Municipality will take care of you”.
The attitude: She is not withdrawn, she is close, she is one of the people, she touches them, she sighs with them, she radiates motherhood. She is “Borisov in elections 2023”.
Deciding how to vote in an election is very often emotional rather than rational. And as you can see, Vanya Grigorova’s campaign is built to hit the emotions hard. It has the potential to broaden the base. Here’s where he can get votes:
It has the potential to consolidates the votes of the BSP. At last the party has a real communist as a candidate. But real, like out of a romantic Soviet novel or movie. A story about the real man. Kalina Alena. The plowed celery. A working friend who works her way up with honest work. A trade unionist who sympathizes with working people. A perfect image for old party members.
There is not even a mention of the anti-gender rhetoric of Cornelia Ninova. Gone are the pseudo-religious ramblings that were somewhat incomprehensible to the average socialist. There is a pure as a tear convinced communist who wants to work for the common people. Not only will the votes of the BSP be consolidated, but they will also be attracted from the wide periphery. Who fled from the Christian sectarianism of Nineveh. The comrade is again a worker and collective farmer, and not a “traditional primitive housewife” who should only stay at home.
It has potential to take from the votes of GERB. These are the people with nostalgia for what we had as socialism in Bulgaria. Or more precisely, those who had something positive during Zhivkov’s regime and hope that if he returns, the arthritis will disappear, and “the state will take care of them more”. All the nostalgia for “the state should take care of us” will vote for Vanya Grigorova. Because Borisov no longer cares about them, he does not want socialism, but he suddenly started talking about European values. Grigorova also takes the concept of GERB as “mother of society”. The mother who will take care of everyone. The mother, as a symbol of the state, of security, of the good woman who both cares and makes decisions for people.
It has the potential to take from the voices of Vazrazhdane, ITN, VMRO. Vanya Grigorova in her campaign is the embodiment of the typical “patriot” – chases international companies, suspends concessions, insists on full municipal control on the activities of municipal employees. Against its background, the candidates of the “patriotic” formations look like well-dressed financial brokers who only talk about how they will use Euro-funds. This will make more of their fans vote for Grigorova.
It has the potential to take from the votes of PP-DB. Yes, as strange as it is. Currently, Vanya Grigorova is most strongly positioned as an anti-GERD spokesperson. Vasil Terziev’s staff made the mistake of not starting with an honest detailed analysis of the situation in Sofia, what was done and what was not done for 18 years of GERB management. Whether they are preparing for a “Sofia assembly” or just chose the concept of a positive campaign, it doesn’t matter. And Grigorova even took the word “change”. Most brazenly, she took it from Terziev and used it as a flag. Some of the fiercely anti-GERD voters may support her.
It has the potential to take chunks of all votes by positioning itself as a “genuine opposition”. And at the central level, to the government assembly. And at the local level, to the previous government in Sofia. The chance to “steal” the negative and punitive vote of people who are fed up with 20 years of subways not being built is huge.
She has the potential to take parts of the voices in Obelya, Lyulin, Nadezhda, Ovcha kupel, because people recognize her there. She is one of them, or so she positions herself. And people are sick of “repair repair repair repair”. As well as disputes over where the next bike lane should go.
All this so far shows that the potential of Vanya Grigorova’s campaign is very high. And the chance of him going to a runoff may upset some party headquarters. On social networks, we can joke about her impossible ideas. But if the headquarters underestimate and neglect it, it will be an extremely gross mistake.
There is very little time left until the end of the campaign. There are very few opportunities left for candidates who want to get to a runoff, assess whether they have communicated properly with people, and make the necessary adjustments.
Otherwise, there could be many surprises on Sunday.
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