1 of 4Photo: Noah Berger / AP / NTB
Energy crisis, geopolitical tension, pandemic and overcrowded hotels can create challenges at the climate summit in Glasgow.
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The desire for increased efforts against climate change has been great in the wake of the floods, heat waves and forest fires that affected a number of countries this summer.
US climate envoy John Kerry has called the Glasgow meeting «The last best hope» to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
But the countries at the summit face major dilemmas, challenges and conflicting interests. The British government – which, along with Italy, is hosting the meeting – has apparently begun to dampen expectations.
“I am very worried, because it could go wrong,” said Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this week.
– Very hard
During a meeting with British schoolchildren, Johnson acknowledged that it is difficult to make the necessary progress in the climate negotiations.
– It is very, very difficult. But I think it is possible, he added.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also expressed concern.
– I hope we can still avoid defeat in Glasgow. But time is short and things are starting to get harder, he said recently.
–One of the goals of the British hosts is to increase support for the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.
But this will be extremely challenging. Instead, it seems that the world is on the way to 2.7 degrees if all countries comply with the emission targets they have so far set.
– It is obviously a one-way ticket to disaster, Guterres believes.
Biden, Macron and Modi
Over a hundred Heads of state and government are expected to participate in the first phase of the COP26 climate summit at the beginning of next week.
Among them are US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Labor). Britain poses with Boris Johnson and several members of the British royal family.
–The UN summit is being held towards the end of a year with a series of dramatic events that raised awareness of global warming. The United States, Canada, Germany, Greece, China and several other countries were hit by extreme weather this summer, which was linked to climate change.
The UN Climate Panel presented a new, gloomy report, which was described by António Guterres as “code red for humanity”.
–Burns more coal
But while climate change has become more visible to people in Europe and North America, an energy crisis has hit parts of the world this autumn.
The price of the fossil energy sources oil, gas and also each has shot in the air. The use of coal and oil must be rapidly reduced if the climate is to be stabilized, but instead demand has now increased.
The energy crisis has several different causes. But one factor in Europe has been the lack of wind, which has hit the wind power that has been developed to cut climate emissions.
The situation may make it more difficult to agree on the summit in Glasgow, writes the news agency Bloomberg. Countries may be less willing to promise cuts in coal power.
Climate negotiations are also affected by relations between China and the United States, the world’s two largest emitting nations. This relationship has been full of conflict ever since Donald Trump went to war with China.
Strict infection control
Despite the UN’s dramatic climate warnings, Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to drop the Glasgow summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not travel to Scotland either.
The corona pandemic and lack of hotel rooms create practical problems for some of those who will be attending the meeting physically. Delegates from poor countries are affected by strict coronary restrictions and sky-high hotel prices.
–Although the climate summit has been referred to as the most important since the Paris summit in 2015, it is not the very biggest decisions that are planned in this round of negotiations.
The tug of war over rich countries’ financing of climate measures in poor countries will continue. Several countries have promised to increase their contributions – but probably not enough to reach the goal of 100 billion dollars per year.
In addition, a new attempt will be made to agree on the rules for quota trading in line with the Paris Agreement. In these talks, Norway will play a leading role.
–– Very important year
The British hosts are hoping for progress in a number of different areas that are part of the negotiation process, according to a British source with whom NTB has spoken.
Among other things, there is hope that more countries will commit to so-called net zero emissions by 2050.
Research director Steffen Kallbekken at the Cicero Center for Climate Research says 2021 is a very important year for international climate policy. But it is not because many important decisions are planned in Glasgow.
Instead, he refers to the voluntary emission targets that the countries of the world have included in the Paris Agreement. The goals will be sharpened on a regular basis, and many countries have done so over the past year.
Overall, the level of ambition has thus been stepped up – but not enough to prevent the world from heading towards 2.7 degrees warming.
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