For centuries, the Rhine was a reliable shipping route, which is why countless industrial giants have settled on its banks. With climate change, those days are coming to an end — and the federal government cannot keep up with developments. From late summer to autumn, the water level regularly drops to a level that impedes shipping. Here is an analysis by Bloomberg: To avoid downtime, producers are trying to adapt their logistics in a hurry and are hoarding supplies. Cargo companies have begun adding shallow-water barges to their fleets. These measures make it clear that the climate crisis is affecting even advanced industrialized countries.
Low level at Kaub makes the Rhine a problematic river for shipping
After extreme heat waves in southern Europe, the Rhine near Kaub, between Lorch and the Loreley, caused massive problems this summer. Because of low water level at the site, some ships could only carry about half their normal capacity. While recent rains have eased the situation somewhat, even small changes can have a big impact. According to Florian Röthlingshöfer, director of the Swiss Rhine ports, a drop of 10 centimeters means that around 100 tons less can be transported per ship.
“What we may experience as an exception today will become the norm in the future,” said Christoph Heinzelmann, Director of the Federal Institute for Hydraulic Engineering, in an interview. “This will result in further restrictions.” Initiatives have been in the works for years and include early warning systems and the deepening of a roughly 50-kilometer stretch in the Rhine between Mainz and St. Goar, behind Kaub. The project will cost the federal government an estimated 180 million euros.
Up to 90 billion euros in costs for the conversion of the Rhine fleet
Upgrading the Rhine fleet of 8,900 ships for low water could amount to around 90 billion euros. And that’s just part of the cost of keeping goods moving. Add to this additional inventory and the space needed to store it, and the government’s plans to optimize the flow are progressing slowly.
BASF, Covestro and Thyssenkrupp have to adapt
The Rhine is largely irreplaceable for locations such as the huge BASF plant in Ludwigshafen. The world’s largest chemical plant stretches over 10 square kilometers along the river, and around 15 barges are loaded and unloaded on the Rhine every day — that’s around 40% of the transport volume. The company uses an early warning system that predicts problems 6 weeks in advance. The plan is to shift transport to rail as far as possible. In addition, BASF is building new loading docks to increase flexibility.
The BASF plant on the Rhine in Ludwigshafen. Photographer: Ben Kilb/Bloomberg
Germany’s largest steel mill is even more at risk. The Thyssenkrupp AG plant, located in Duisburg at the confluence of the Rhine and Ruhr, requires 60,000 tons of raw materials every day. The cessation of ship transport would require 2,000 trucks, and according to the group, a complete abandonment of Rhine shipping is not feasible. According to a company spokeswoman, inland waterway vessels are still “the most efficient, economical and ecological mode of transport”.
Covestro AG is also dependent on the Rhine, which is where most of the raw materials are delivered. The plants in North Rhine-Westphalia transport around a third of their finished products across the Rhine. A separate task force takes action when the water levels are critical, which, for example, prompts the hiring of additional ships to enable lighter loads. Some of the production is also relocated to other locations in Germany and Belgium.
Expansion of the waterways is hardly progressing
Political support is not to be expected in the near future. Plans to improve navigation on the Rhine have become the subject of a dispute between the parties to the traffic light coalition. The waterways have yet to be fully incorporated into legislation designed to speed up the approval of major infrastructure projects. The reason: The Greens fear that dredging work to deepen the fairway could have serious consequences for the environment. Without the law to defuse bottlenecks, the dredging of the key section of the Middle Rhine will take place after 2030 at the earliest Federal Association of German Inland Shipping (BDB).
As part of the decarbonization of the transport sector, the federal government has promised to expand inland waterway and rail transport. However, not much has happened so far. Although the federal government’s long-term spending plan envisages investing 270 billion euros in transport infrastructure by 2030, almost half of this is earmarked for roads and less than 10% for waterways.
Contrary to Germany’s slow-moving approach, Switzerland has already undertaken a dredging project to improve access to its Rhine ports. The plan was enshrined in a 2014 climate report. Permission was granted in 2017 and the project was completed in February 2019. The governing coalition says that it wants to play a pioneering role in climate policy, but is not acting fast enough, says Claudia Kemfert, Professor of Energy Economics at the DIW in Berlin.
FMW/Bloomberg
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