Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China, is expected to vote for an unprecedented third term at the party congress next month. There is a custom in the leadership to retire at the age of 68 at the time of the party congress, but it is questionable whether Mr. Xi, who is 69, will rewrite this unspoken rule and allow exceptions not just for himself. same but also for other senior officials.
A Bloomberg analysis of government data shows that the obligation to retire at the age of 68 has been universally met for the past 20 years, but party officials have called the age limit “an age limit.”folklore”And once fired.
Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping
Photographer: Kevin Frayer / Getty Images
Removing the age limit presents a dilemma. It would remove the neutral selection criteria that three generations of party leaders have used to eliminate rivals and even promote close associates.
Experts point out that it is more likely that only Mr. Xi will be an exception, but if that happens, he will face a mountain of challenges, including escalating tensions with the United States over the situation in Taiwan, an economic slowdown, and a worsening of the housing crisis Young inexperienced executives will stand by Mr. Xi’s side.
It is not a country for old people
Almost half of China’s 19th Politburo is past retirement age
Source: data compiled by Bloomberg
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The practice of withdrawing from the party congress if he is over 68 and remaining in office if he is under 67, known as “seven ups and eight lows”, began at the party congress in 2002, when Secretary General Jiang Zemin he resigned .
The rule prevented Jiang’s rival, then 68-year-old Li Ruihuan, from remaining on the Politburo Standing Committee and forced him to resign. Secretary General Hu Jintao, who succeeded Mr. Jiang, also resigned in 2012 to comply with this rule and confirmed the custom of limiting general secretaries to two terms.
—Hu Jintao (left) and Jiang Zemin
Photographer: Lintao Zhang / Getty Images
of the American UniversityGiuseppe TrigianoThe assistant professor said that Mr. Xi will keep age restrictions only in fields he deems beneficial.
Top Chinese economic officials are expected to pull back across the board
Susan Shirk, a former U.S. State Department official who is now director of the Center for 21st Century China at the University of California, San Diego, said Xi was more likely to lower the retirement age than Jiang. She said it will be possible to replace 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, Wang Huning and other members of the Politburo Standing Committee and promote their aides.
“Premier Li and Wang are reformist politicians who may show some resistance during Xi’s third term,” Shark said.
Xi can also reduce the number of members of the Standing Committee from seven.
Original title:Xi’s next power play could be an age limit for everyone but himself(extract)
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