The impact of China’s population decline on the economy
According to newly released figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national population in 2023 will be 1.40967 billion, a decrease of 2.08 million people from the end of 2022, and a negative number for two consecutive years. The total number of births in 2023 will be 9.02 million, with a birth rate of 0.64%; the number of deaths will be 11.1 million, with a mortality rate of 0.787%; the natural population growth rate is -0.148%. If we look purely at the number of births, the number has been declining for seven consecutive years. However, the degree of population aging was not as severe as it is now, so that positive population growth can be maintained. As the problem of population aging further intensifies (which cannot be changed), if the birth rate cannot be increased, it will be difficult for China to reverse the trend of declining population.
Because China once enforced the one-child policy, the age structure will change faster than other places. At present, China’s working population is at its peak, and the negative impact on the economy caused by a slight decline in population is still very slight; however, as the population further ages, the decline in the working population will accelerate, and the impact on the economy will then be relatively small. obvious.
Currently, China’s working population aged 16 to 59 is 864.8 million, accounting for 61.3% of the national population. In the future, China’s working population will gradually decline from this peak, and the positive impact of the demographic dividend on the economy will come to an end. In the future, China’s economic growth will rely more on improvements in production technology and management efficiency.
In recent years, China has greatly improved the quality of its labor force through the popularization of education. China already has the world’s strongest manufacturing army, which is invincible in the world. As long as the quality of this army can continue to improve, it will be enough to offset the decline in the number of people in this army.
However, changes in population structure, in addition to affecting productivity, will also have an impact on the distribution of social resources. As the population ages, the demand for medical benefits will increase, and the government will have to invest more resources in this area. As the government’s burden in this area increases, it will inevitably weaken the government’s infrastructure capabilities and slow down the overall development of society. This is the reason why European and American countries have been unable to update their infrastructure measures in a timely manner in recent years.
In addition, the government’s burden ultimately has to be shared by the people. Faced with the numerous welfare needs of an aging population, the government must either increase taxes to meet expenditures, or increase the proportion of out-of-pocket payments by users. This burden will ultimately fall on the new generation of working people.
In this case, the ability of the new generation to accumulate wealth will be weakened. If you lack savings, you may not dare to consume, which will affect the internal demand of society, and the economy may lack motivation. In addition, a lack of savings may also prevent people from starting a business hastily, hindering the momentum of economic development. From this perspective, as the population ages, China’s economic development will inevitably slow down.
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2024-01-23 20:31:53
