China is Modernizing and Multiplying its Nuclear Arsenal: Experts Raise Concern in the West

According to the Swedish peace research institute Sipri, China currently has around 350 nuclear warheads in its arsenal, but these are not operational. In other words, they are not mounted on rockets or bombs and ready for immediate use.

In comparison, the USA and Russia have 1,770 and 1,674 nuclear warheads respectively ready for use, according to a recent report from Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor.

However, the Chinese authorities do not hide the fact that they are rearming up and the Pentagon estimated in November that the country could have 1,500 nuclear warheads in its arsenal by 2035.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican) estimates that in 2021 China spent just over NOK 230 billion on its nuclear weapons programme, which was only a third of what the US spent. The development nevertheless raises concerns.

Not satisfied

– It no longer seems as if China is satisfied with having only a few hundred nuclear weapons, says Matt Korda of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

China carried out its first nuclear weapons test in 1964 and the leadership in Beijing has made it clear in all the years since that the country will never be the first to use such weapons.

However, in recent years under President Xi Jinping, China has been heavily armed, and a large-scale modernization of its nuclear arsenal has also begun.

More nuclear warheads

– China is now carrying out the most important expansion and modernization of its nuclear weapons in the country’s history, says Professor David Logan at the US Naval War College.

It includes not only the production of more nuclear warheads, but also the upgrading of delivery platforms such as missiles, aircraft and submarines.

– The changes that are now taking place are very significant. They will change China from being a state that has the capacity to retaliate to becoming the world’s third largest nuclear power, says senior researcher Eric Heginbotham Center for International Studies in Massachusetts.

Rocket silos

– China is now rapidly building facilities for intercontinental missiles and has over 300 missile silos, says the Pentagon study from November.

Xi stressed at the latest last month, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, that “nuclear weapons must never be used”.

However, the two leaders agreed to step up nuclear cooperation, and Russian experts will assist China in building so-called fast reactors.

Plutoniumslager

Chinese authorities insist that it is exclusively a matter of civilian nuclear cooperation, but experts say it will also enable the country to produce more nuclear warheads more quickly.

– The fast reactors to be developed and operated with nuclear fuel from Russia will make China technically capable of significantly increasing its plutonium stocks, says Korda.

– However, there are no publicly available indicators that China has plans to do this, he adds.