Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations, which were severed in 2016. This is an important event for the entire Middle East, where the course of events largely determines the confrontation between these two countries. China played a big role in the agreement, and this is especially liked by Russian propagandists and pro-government commentators, who see it as evidence that US influence in the region is declining. However, an expert on Iranian politics, the host of the Telegram channel “Duty for Iran” Nikita Smagin in article for Carnegie Politika notes that, in fact, Beijing is a competitor not only to Washington, but also to Moscow. With permission from Carnegie Politika, Meduza publishes the full article.
The two main antagonists in the Middle East – Iran and Saudi Arabia – have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years of absence. Such a decision is now beneficial to both parties, although the prospect of a full-fledged reconciliation of the two traditional rivals is still a big question.
But who definitely remained in the black is China – an intermediary in the negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh. Previously, Beijing did not show much interest in political processes in the Middle East. But now the scenario in which China will squeeze out the United States and Russia in this region seems more and more real.
Iranian coercion
Iran and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations in 2016 after the Saudis executed a prominent Shiite cleric [аятоллу Нимра ан-Нимра]. The decision to restore them matured for more than one year. Iraq became the first mediator. Since April 2021, several rounds of negotiations have taken place in Baghdad. The dialogue then came to a standstill and was suspended for several months, then resumed.
In January 2022, it seemed that success was just around the corner. For the first time since 2016, Saudi Arabia has issued visas to three Iranian diplomats working for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (the structure is headquartered in Saudi Jeddah). And Tehran favorably reacted to the unification of the energy networks of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, although before that it considered Iraqi energy to be the sphere of its exclusive interests.
However, 2022 did not become a breakthrough year. The Iranian authorities switched to the suppression of protests and other domestic problems. The focus was also on cooperation between Tehran and Moscow against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. No one else remembered the attempts of the Iranians to reconcile with the Saudis. So the normalization agreement negotiated in Beijing in March 2023 came as a surprise.
On the protests in Iran
However, Tehran and Riyadh have long come to the understanding that the restoration of diplomatic relations is the best option available. Iran’s motives are clear. In recent years, the country has been thrown from one escalation to another. Israel regularly commits acts of sabotage against Iran’s nuclear facilities and strikes at pro-Iranian forces. It also frankly does not stick with Washington after Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018. Suffice it to recall the strikes of the American armed forces on Baghdad, as a result of which Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was killed. That episode almost led to a local military conflict.
Tehran has long been unable to actively expand its influence in the Middle East, as it was, for example, after the collapse of Saddam’s Iraq. Now the Iranians have no time for expansion – there are no free resources. On the contrary, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Iran to hold its positions in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Against this background, the authorities of the Islamic Republic came to the conclusion that now the best way to alleviate their difficult international situation is to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.
The Iranians have long called on Riyadh to start a dialogue, and for greater persuasiveness they accompanied verbal calls with various methods of pressure. Iranian drones in hand Yemeni Houthis attacks on Saudi Arabia, hackers from Iran attacked important infrastructure of the kingdom, periodically there were mysterious explosions on Saudi tankers.
In the end, the tactic of “forcing a relationship” did work, although it’s not just about it. Among other things, the reduction of the US presence in the Middle East persuaded the Saudis to compromise. The Saudi leadership clearly did not want to remain face to face with Iran in the future. The only thing left to do was to agree on a formula for reconciliation.
Fragile Normalization
The details of this Iranian-Saudi reconciliation formula have not been disclosed. Probably, we are talking about some delimitation of spheres of influence in the region. However, in any case, the agreements will not make it possible to leave all the contradictions between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the past. The two countries have been model antagonists for many years: a revolutionary republic and a Sunni monarchy, an anti-colonial force with the slogan “Death to America!” and a stronghold of US influence.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi addresses a demonstrator that gathers annually outside the former US embassy to commemorate its capture during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tehran, November 4, 2022
Sobhan Farajvan / Pacific Press / LightRocket / Getty Images
Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the US President’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Jeddah, 15 July 2022
Bandar Aljaloud / Saudi Royal Palace / AP / Scanpix / LETA
Over the 40 years of the existence of the Islamic Republic, relations between Tehran and Riyadh have repeatedly gone through stages of normalization. But then everything inevitably slipped into new escalations. The repetition of similar foreign policy zigzags cannot be ruled out. Iranians and Saudis remain rivals, and so far no one is seriously talking about a complete reconciliation.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that not everything directly depends on the two signatories of the agreement. Thus, it is important for Saudi Arabia to achieve an end to the war with the Houthis in Yemen. Now, probably, it is possible to agree with Iran on the reduction of assistance to the rebels or its complete cessation. However, will this solve the issue? The Houthis have already stated that the Iranian-Saudi normalization will not affect the course of hostilities in any way.
De-escalation in the region, of course, is what both countries want. However, circumstances can sometimes be stronger than their desire for reconciliation.
Chinese alternative
The real implications of the agreement for the Iranians and Saudis have yet to be assessed. But what we can talk about now is the unexpected role of China, which acted as an intermediary. Many are already calling Beijing a possible counterbalance to the US in the Middle East. With particular pleasure, the growing role of China in the region began tell Russian media.
Washington is indeed losing interest in the Middle East. The American authorities are not very happy with the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but in order to prevent it, it was necessary to provide Riyadh with security guarantees. The United States agrees to sell weapons to the Saudi kingdom, but not to defend it on its own. Under the current conditions, the White House would rather agree with the Iranian-Saudi normalization than become directly involved in the military confrontation between the two countries.
Beijing, in turn, positions itself as a responsible and peaceful power that seeks constructive solutions and is able to move problems off the ground. Thanks to the successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have waged a proxy war with each other in recent years, China has shown that it is able – unlike the United States – to end regional conflicts, not limited to just general words about peace.
Of course, China’s diplomatic success in the Middle East does not mean that it is able to achieve the same with respect to Ukraine and Russia, which Beijing would like to reconcile with its plan out of 12 points. Here, first of all, the fact that Kyiv considers Beijing too close to Moscow and therefore does not see it as an intermediary prevents it. But the conflict may sooner or later reach a dead end, and then Chinese mediation will still become possible – after all, Russia will no longer want to see the West in this role.
In any case, the Beijing Treaty shows that the Powers global south no longer need to rely on any involvement of the West in solving their problems. In this regard, China is following the path already blazed by Russia. It was she who for the last decade sought to play the role of a universal mediator in the Middle East. For example, it was Moscow that came up with the Astana format with Turkey and Iran, in which they tried to resolve the Syrian crisis without regard to the West.
China, it seems, will now try to organize its own “Beijing format”. For example, Chinese President Xi Jinping has already proposed to the states of the Persian Gulf (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and Iran to hold a summit in Beijing this year, the first of its kind.
So it is possible that the Russian media were too early to rejoice at the change in roles in the Middle East. China there is not so much an ally for Russia as an alternative to it. The Middle Eastern states have really become disillusioned with the policies of the US and Europe and no longer expect external mediation from the West. But the authority of the Russian Federation has noticeably decreased due to the war against Ukraine. And this is happening at a time when for Russia itself the Middle East is becoming an increasingly important region due to its growing isolation in the West and economic difficulties. The Middle Eastern powers cannot fail to understand how much their positions in relations with Moscow have strengthened.
China has incomparably greater financial and technical capabilities than Russia. However, until recently, he was limited to economic expansion in the region, avoiding direct political participation in the Middle East processes. Now the positions of the US and Russia have weakened, so the PRC may well fill the emerging gaps. China has a lot to offer the Middle Eastern countries in the military-technical sphere as well, and it is already starting to do so.
The recently published The Wall Street Journal may add cause for concern to Moscow. messagesthat the Iranians agreed to Chinese mediation on the condition that Beijing facilitated the reconstruction nuclear deal. The very deal that Moscow no longer sees as in its best interest. High-ranking Russian diplomats confessed to journalists on condition of anonymity: the removal of sanctions from Iran and the increase in its export of hydrocarbons is now useless to Russia.
So far, it seems unlikely that China can save the nuclear deal. However, the very fact of addressing him with such a request is important. This indicates a serious demand for alternative force in resolving issues that are significant not only for the Middle East region. And such an approach should at least alert both Washington and Moscow.
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Nikita Smagin
