– China is facing an impossible trilemma that underlies the strange moves. They have tied a logical knot on themselves, and must decide which of these positions to prioritize.
Senior researcher Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson at NUPI tells Dagbladet about China’s approach to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“China’s problem is that they are trying to balance three conflicting positions: they want to support the ever closer relationship with Russia, they want to avoid rejecting the West and they have marked themselves as the foremost protector of state sovereignty,” says Sverdrup. -Thygeson and continues:
– The challenge is that you can not achieve all these things at once, and that is precisely the reason why the Chinese have carried out terribly strange maneuvers lately. For example, they have refrained from calling it an invasion while fully supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty.
US President Joe Biden has recently said that he can not comment on whether they currently want to encourage China to isolate Russia.
RELEASE INVISES: The President of Ukraine informs that they are releasing inmates Ukrainians to fight in the war. February 28, 2022. Video: AP view more
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Security Council
It was Thursday night that Russia attacked Ukraine. NATO countries and the West have condemned the attack, imposed strong sanctions on Russia and supported Ukraine with money, humanitarian aid and military equipment.
China has not yet imposed sanctions on Russia, but several state-owned banks have limited funding for the purchase of raw materials from Russia.
On Friday, 11 of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council voted in favor of a draft resolution calling on Russia to halt the attack on Ukraine. Russia vetoed the proposal, while China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstained.
Sverdrup-Thygeson says that China’s decision is significant.
– China has in many ways gone further in supporting Russia than before, but that they chose to abstain from voting is in line with how they have operated in the past. If China had vetoed it, on the other hand, it would have sent an enormously strong signal that China has decided on its primary position, says the senior researcher and continues:
– That they did not do so, shows that they are still trying to find a balance between supporting Russia, but not repelling the West.
141 countries voted in favor of the resolution. 35 abstained, while 5 countries voted against. China was among the countries that abstained from voting.
UKRAINE WAR: Commentator in Dagbladet Morten Strand about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Video: Dagbladet TV view more
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– Russlands plan B
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on February 4, where they discussed economic cooperation between the two countries. Last year, trade between the countries amounted to 140 billion dollars, and China is said to have mentioned its intentions to increase this to 250 billion dollars, according to Kremlin. The amount corresponds to NOK 2223 billion.
The day after the attack was launched – February 25 – Xi and Putin spoke again. There, Xi stressed that he respects the actions of the Putin leadership in the ongoing crisis, according to the Kremlin. During the meeting, which is described by the Kremlin as constructive and friendly, emphasis was also placed on the importance of stepping up economic cooperation, as they talked about on 4 February.
Sverdrup-Thygeson says that it is obvious that it is important
– This is because the West is pressuring the Putin regime with economic sanctions. Putin’s plan B to oppose this is to increase economic cooperation with China, and how much China wants to contribute to such a plan B has a lot to say about how much economic pain Russia will be exposed to in the years ahead, says Sverdrup-Thygeson to Dagbladet.
