Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system are expected to continue this fall and winter, so the cold period of the year promises to be difficult for Ukrainians again. Last season, the energy infrastructure suffered a lot, so its restoration is still ongoing, which is a long process.
According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denis Shmykhalys, five nuclear power plant units have been repaired and four more are being repaired. Also, 62% of power units of thermal power plants and 70% of thermal power plants have been renewed.
In order to prepare for the cold weather, the state invests 11 billion hryvnias or more than 273 million euros in the repair of thermal power plants and coal mining.
British intelligence in one of its daily reports emphasized the high qualification of workers in the energy sector of Ukraine in the operation and maintenance of energy systems in wartime conditions.
While the power plants are preparing for winter, the country is actively increasing the import of electricity from European countries. Ukrainians are still encouraged to save electricity. The country is also trying to save gas and coal. Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz announced this month that it has activated two gas wells, which will significantly increase production and help prepare for the coming winter.
In addition, Ukraine will significantly save money that could be used to purchase additional gas volumes from abroad.
Ukrainians estimate that at current gas prices, they could save about 5 million euros per month. More than 12 billion cubic meters of gas are already stored in underground storages.
This amount is in line with the gas reserve preparation plan for next winter. By the beginning of the heating season, Ukraine plans to store 14 billion cubic meters of gas. The Minister of Energy Hermans Galushchenko stated that the energy infrastructure is being prepared for efficient operation in winter, and the relevant institutions are ready to ensure a quick response to possible emergency situations. However, he admitted that some energy facilities will not be able to be restored.
Ukraine’s National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission announced at the beginning of August that the country failed to restore even 2% of the destroyed energy system.
According to experts, Ukraine will not be able to restore the stability of the energy system to the pre-war level or at least to the level of October last year due to the lack of equipment and money for the repair of damaged energy facilities.
This winter may be more difficult for Ukraine’s energy system than the previous one, military analyst Oleg Zhdanov assessed. To make matters worse, the Russian invaders have already destroyed quite a large part of Ukraine’s power grid. In addition, attackers will now need fewer missiles to damage networks.
“Currently, it is enough to knock out any electricity substation, and we will start having problems. Electricity supply will be possible only after its restoration. Not by transferring capacities, but by restoring the elements of the energy system themselves,” said Zhdanov.
Also, the director of the Energy Research Center, Aleksandr Kharchenko, believes that winter could be more difficult than last year, because currently the strength of the Ukrainian energy system is lower:
“Energy system maintainers are doing everything possible to prepare for the heating season. Very intensive work is underway in the field of physical protection of facilities. However, we must expect a very difficult winter.”
Gennadys Ryabtsev, expert of the National Institute of Strategic Studies, admitted that
the biggest problems with energy resources will be for the residents of the frontline cities and Odesa region, who may face a lack of electricity and gas supply.
If the problems near the front line are that many electricity and gas distribution networks have been damaged, in the Odesa region a lot depends on how stable the overhead power lines passing through Transnistria will be. If something happens to them, it will not be easy for the Odesa region.
In a recent survey, only three percent of respondents admitted that they plan to leave Ukraine if the country has a difficult winter. Just as many could leave their homes to go somewhere else in Ukraine. On the other hand, 86 percent of respondents do not plan to leave their homes, moving abroad or to another place in Ukraine. Another 7 percent plan to return to their homes.
CONTEXT:
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. Putin claimed that NATO was going to use Ukraine as a springboard for aggression against Russia, although there was no evidence for these claims. Ukraine believes that Putin’s real goal is to destroy Ukraine’s statehood and bring the territory under Moscow’s control.
Ukraine experienced massive Russian missile strikes last fall and winter. The Kremlin tried to cause maximum damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure so that Ukrainians would have to endure the cold weather in the cold and darkness. Preparations for the next winter are in full swing, however, the amount of damage is large and it will not be possible to restore everything in time.
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2023-08-24 03:03:34
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