Btp, Italia or Futura: which government bond to choose? Because 2023 is the year of bonds

The investment scenario and the yields of BTPs

A few days before the end of 2022, yields on European government bonds are declining, after the rises of mid-December. The spread between Btp and Bund dropped to 208 pointscompared to the more than 220 points of the highs of the month. Consequently, the yield on the Italian 10-year bond was also down, reaching 4.35% on the morning of 22 December, after having reached a maximum of 4.70% in December. The rates of the peripheral countries of the euro were also down, such as Spain’s Bonos at 3.35% and Greece’s ten-year issues at 4.39%, a neck and neck from the yield of Italian BTPs.

In this shifting panorama, however, there are certainties. The increase in interest rates will also continue in 2023 and therefore it is unlikely that yields on ten-year BTPs will fall sharply, even if Italy and the eurozone plunge into recession. Not even the Btp Bund spread seems destined to return to around 100 points at the beginning of 2022if only because in 2023, with the quantitative tightening – the quantitative tightening, i.e. the reduction of the portfolio of public securities held by the Frankfurt Institute – ECB support for Italian public debt will tend to weaken. In this changing scenario, the Treasury is not standing idly by. And it just announced the launch of new debt instruments aimed at households. Let’s take a detailed look at the opportunities and risks of public issues facing 2023.

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