According to CNN, the dramatic number of coronavirus cases is putting pressure on British and European politicians to try to agree on a “divorce agreement” – a trade agreement that will also determine how the European Union and Britain will live.
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The final round of talks between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost began on Tuesday. There are only two weeks left until the very important meeting of European Union leaders, but only a month until the end of the negotiations.
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The stakes are very high – the British economy has suffered the most from the pandemic compared to other major economies. The number of cases of coronavirus has forced the country to re-impose various restrictions by closing bars and restaurants. Also on the European side, in France and Spain, the number of new cases is higher than in the spring.
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How has the negotiations progressed so far?
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Although Britain has formally withdrawn from the European Union, it can still enjoy free access to the European market (and vice versa). However, this possibility exists because of a transitional period that will end on 31 December this year. London now urgently needs to reach an agreement with Brussels, otherwise Britain will lose access to the world’s largest free market.
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Nevertheless, the negotiations have not been successful at the moment, as everything is hampered by two ‘stumbling blocks’: fishing rights and the rules under which governments announce aid programs for businesses.
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Last month, hopes for a positive outcome of the talks were almost dashed by statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that he was ready to break previous agreements and reach new conditions.
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The idea that Britain could formally break international law caused widespread political upheaval in the corridors of British power, and Johnson’s statements were condemned by politicians in Brussels. However, this turmoil was quickly helped by a global problem: the number of new cases of Covid-19 continues to rise rapidly.
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As a result, Britain was forced to impose (in fact, renew) restrictions – a large number of bars and restaurants were closed, which is now under great financial pressure. On the other hand, those working institutions face a limit on the number of visitors. Workers are advised to make the most of the opportunity to work remotely to reduce congestion in city centers. Thus, once again, restrictions are in place that reduce the chances of a rapid economic recovery.
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British companies cut jobs by 700,000 between March and August. The Bank of England warned that around 2.5 million working-age people could be out of work by the end of the year.
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Eurasia Group’s Director of European Affairs, Mujabah Rahman, believes that the outbreak of the coronavirus could make Johnson think carefully about what it would mean for his country to leave the European market recklessly without any agreement. According to Rahman, there is a 60% chance that an agreement will be reached by the end of the year.
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“Johnson sees that the problems are exacerbated by the coronavirus. The number of infections is rising and new limits have been set. There are concerns about a new unemployment crisis. Consequently, an agreement reached with the European Union in the eyes of the British will be considered a political success, ”Rahmans points out.
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