“I have never felt so far from Westminster as I do now. After Brexit and everything that has happened with the coronavirus, I feel like we live in separate worlds. In 2014 I voted in favor of Scottish independence and if for some years I had doubts about my vote, now I think I would do it again ”, he tells The Third Zoe Brown, a plastic artist who lives in Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland.
Like zoe There are many Scots who, as a result of Brexit, want a second independence referendum to be held, just as Chief Minister Nicola Sturgeon has promised. This is revealed by the surveys, which indicate that 58% of voters intend to vote for independence, while 42% oppose it, according to a study by The Scotsman newspaper and the consulting firm Savanta ComRes carried out in mid-December.
The UK’s departure from the European Union upset the Scots greatly. In fact, in the 2016 referendum, 62% of them voted in favor of staying in the bloc and only 38% wanted to leave. While in Edinburgh 74% of its residents wanted to be in the EU. What’s more, many in that city put the hashtag on Twitter “leave a light for Scotland”, on the night of December 31, the day on which the transition period of the Brexit withdrawal agreement ended. While the Scottish National Party (SNP) illuminated the European Commission in Brussels with the words Scotland and Europe and a heart.
“In the first half of 2020, the moment the UK formally left the EU, there was a shift in support for independence. This indicates that that change came mainly from those who voted no to independence, but had supported remaining in the EU. At that time, in the first half of the year, support for independence was around 50%, now, in the second half of the year, we know that it has increased. It is not clear that it is mainly about Brexit. We know that the people of Scotland view the Scottish government much more positively, and in particular Chief Minister Nicola Sturgeon, for her handling of the pandemic. The assumption is that this positive perception of the Scottish government and the Prime Minister has helped to strengthen support for independence, “he explained to The Third, Nicola McEwen, Academic of Land Policy at the University of Edinburgh.
Is it possible to have a second referendum in Scotland? There is a consensus that the scopes are both legal and political. For such a consultation to take place it needs the approval of Parliament in Westminster and Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated his opposition to this last Sunday. “From my experience, referenda in this country are not particularly happy events,” he told the BBC, referring to the Brexit referendum.
However, Johnson’s refusal is not so simple.. In 2014, Scotland conducted a consultation in which 55.3% rejected independence and 44.7% approved it. At that time, remember Third the academic from Durham University, Aileen McHarg, there was an agreement between the UK and the Scottish government that a referendum should be held, as in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections the Scottish National Party had won an absolute majority and in its manifesto (program) there was a compromise to hold the consultation. “It was not entirely clear whether the cooperation of the UK government was strictly legally necessary,” he added.
“Legally, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is not obliged to do anything. Parliament is not obliged to do anything either “stated McEwen, but added: “Politically, I think the Scottish government’s aspiration is that if they have a strong enough mandate in the May parliamentary elections, in which the intention to hold an independence referendum are clear and direct and form part of the center of his campaign, so it becomes politically very difficult for Boris Johnson to ignore that. “
The tension between London and Edinburgh is far from over. There is currently a case in the Scottish courts called Keatings, whose hearing will be at the end of the month, which seeks to establish whether the Scottish Parliament could hold a referendum on its own without the agreement of the British government.
“That may or may not be successful. But if it succeeds, it would be the optimal way for a second referendum to take place, because having a referendum on independence is not the only important thing, but ensuring independence is also extremely important and it is absolutely clear that the Kingdom government United would have to cooperate on that, ”McHarg said. The academic pointed out in private that there are some conservative parliamentarians who do not oppose the idea of holding a second referendum. While Labor is in favor of “giving back” more powers to Scotland.
“I think that is not likely to be that effective, because since Brexit it has been shown that some of the guarantees that were offered (in 2014) that are offered are not worth much. And there has been recent legislation that has weakened the powers of the delegated parliaments, not only in Scotland, but also in Wales, in Northern Ireland, ”added Mc Harg.
While on the continent what happens in Scotland is closely followed, for the professor Federico Fabbrini, director of the Brexit Institute in Dublin, the UK’s departure from the European Union has changed the situation and “the 27 EU members are unlikely to oppose” an independent Scotland joining the bloc. “The Scottish cause is not a cause for concern for Spain. In fact, Scotland wants independence to rejoin the EU. Many would welcome a Scotland back to Europe ”, said to Third.
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