Last week in Brazil, the weather was wet in the northern regions and drier in the southern regions and forecasts indicate it will be the same this week. The weather regime seems locked in place, at least for now.
Although the forecast is drier for southern Brazil, I’m not yet worried about soybeans from Rio Grande do Sul, but state soybeans are among the last developing soybeans in Brazil and they will need of additional precipitation in a week or two to avoid water stress.
According to AgRural, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 15% complete by the end of last week, up from 31% last year. The Brazilian soybean crop continues to be the slowest in ten years.
Soya du Mato Grosso – According to the Institute of Agricultural Economics of Mato Grosso (Imea), soybeans from Mato Grosso were harvested at 34.5% at the end of last week, against 73% last year and 58% for the average the last 5 years. This represented a 12% lead for the week. The soybean crop is 38% lower than last year. The most advanced harvest is in the western part of the state, where 49.5% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest is in the south-central part, where 20% of the soybean crops were harvested.
In the municipality of Claudia, located in northern Mato Grosso, farmers had harvested 20 to 30 percent of their soybeans until heavy rains last week crippled harvesting activities. Soybean yields have been good, in the range of 70 to 75 bags per hectare (62.5 to 67 bushels / acre) and farmers are hoping they will stay good once the harvest resumes. The soybeans that have been harvested are wetter than desired, but so far there have been no major quality issues.
Farmers in the municipality have contracted the majority of their expected soybean crops in the range of R $ 75.00 to R $ 80.00 per bag (approximately US $ 6.45 to US $ 6.85 per bushel). which is well below the current price of R $ 140.00 per bag (about US $ 12.00 per bushel). Farmers are hoping for good yields in order to have stocks of soybeans to sell at higher prices.
Soya du Paraná – According to the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), the soybean harvest in Paraná was 3% complete earlier last week, with 30% of the crop nearing maturity. The current dry weather in the state will allow farmers to speed up their harvest pace. The state’s soybeans are rated 5% “poor”, 19% “average” and 76% “good”.
The president of the Paraná Soybean and Corn Producers Association (Aprosoya / PR) is eager for the pace of harvests to accelerate in order to better manage losses caused by pod loss. Soybean crops that were planted after October 14 were affected by excessive precipitation in January, but the extent of the losses is unknown. The return of drier weather will also allow farmers to apply soybean rust and pest control measures.
Soya du Rio Grande do Sul – The weather in Rio Grande do Sul has become drier and a little warmer. The soybeans are in the middle of the pod filling stage. I don’t think dry weather is still a problem, but the crop will need extra moisture in a week or two to avoid water stress.
Soya du Mato Grosso do Sul – In the municipality of Douradina, located in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, farmers harvest around 10% of their soybeans. These were the first soybean crops planted that suffered from the dry weather during pod filling. As a result, yields are in the range of 40 to 50 bags per hectare (35.7 to 44.7 bushels / acre). Later seeded soybean crops are expected to yield 55 to 60 bags per hectare (49 to 53.6 bushels / acre). The pace of the harvest will now accelerate with the onset of drier weather.
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