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Bonds Europe: the market is calmly awaiting the ECB meeting

Germany’s 10-year borrowing rate fell to -0.22% from -0.20% on Wednesday at the close.

The debt market did not change much on Thursday, like the equity market, after unsurprising statistics and pending the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) in a week.

“The session was fairly calm, with little movement,” observes Aurélien Buffault, head of bond management at Meeschaert Asset Management, interviewed by AFP.

“Surprisingly, we had a lot of statistics but which revealed little surprise”, German inflation came out “in” consistency with expectations “while US retail sales were” a little bit better than expected but not enough to start a movement, “he explains.

Weekly claims for unemployment benefits in the United States have fallen more than expected.

“To move bond rates, we will now need new elements,” said Mr. Buffault.

At the ECB meeting next Thursday, “it will be interesting to know the tone that will give (the president) Christine Lagarde in the face of the somewhat dissonant voices in the Governing Council on the policy of zero or even negative rates”, provides the specialist.

ECB governors were worried in December about the “side effects” of generous monetary policy, according to the report of the institution’s last meeting published on Thursday.

They also agreed to better seek to “understand the economic consequences of climate change” that could influence the institution’s economic projections, and therefore its future action.

At 6:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. GMT), Germany’s 10-year borrowing rate fell to -0.22% from -0.20% on Wednesday at the close of the secondary market, where the already issued debt is traded.

The yield of the same maturity in France followed the same trajectory at 0.04% against 0.05%.

On the other hand, that of Italy rose to 1.43% against 1.39%, suffering a “technical effect” after the downgrade on January 13 of the rating of the highway group Atlantia by S and P Global Ratings, explained M Buffault. The rating fell by three notches, going from the investment category to that of “high yield”, in other words high risk.

The Spanish 10-year borrowing rate also rose, but to a lesser extent to 0.46% compared to 0.45%.

That of the United Kingdom fell to 0.64% against 0.65%.

In the United States, the 10-year borrowing rate advanced to 1.812% from 1.783%, as did the 30-year borrowing rate to 2.261% against 2.236%. The one at two years stood at 1.574%, against 1.553%.

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