Published 21. 1. 2022 at 14:46
Hi traders, v last update we talked about two scenarios – either overcoming 46 thousand. USD, which would lead to the continuation of the bull market, or visit support around 35 thousand. USD. With the fact that I expected to test at least 46 thousand. USD as resistance, to which short bitcoinu in the end, he couldn’t, and instead we saw a strong dump last night, followed by this morning and reaching a bottom of around 38,000. USD.
The scenarios have been set up very carefully and we know that until BTC returns to the bullish zone (which would now be over $ 44,000), we can expect to test lower supports around $ 35,000. USD.
The wick would be the ability to touch up to $ 32,260, where the weekly BTC level is located.
So this is practically the only scenario that is on BTC now – Bitcoin is accelerating to support, but we didn’t have a single pullback to the resistances during the entire fall. So we still see a lot of untested levels above the price and BTC will return to them sooner or later. And practically the only support that can become this is just 35 thousand. USD (- max. 32 000).
So, compared to previous analyzes, only one thing has changed, and that is probability – as long as BTC has held previous support, we have had the best chance of moving up. Now, after the support break, we have to look at the next support, which is around 35 thousand. USD, but again, the direction of the trend is still upwards.
Monthly chart – will bear market begin?
For several weeks now, I have been repeating one of the most important metrics for the bear market, which is the monthly chart. We still have a noticeable uptrend here until they close the moon candles below $ 43,800. And the January candle, which closes in 10 days, is all the way.
So Bitcoin is running out of time really fast – either it can test 35 thousand by the end of January. USD and bounce over 43.8 thousand. USD, or we can say with quite good probability that the bull market is over. At least from the point of view of technical analysis.
This still does not mean that there will be no pullback – even there I think that prices around 60k will be tested during the coming year… but will be more of a sale.
On the contrary, if BTC managed to close above the price of 43.8 thousand. USD, then we would see a very bullish moonlight and probably created a bottom.
Conclusion on the current situation in the cryptocurrency market
Bitcoin does not make it easy for us and it reaches levels that are on the border of the bear market. Everything will depend on the monthly deadline – so in the update in 2 weeks we will already know whether pullbacks to higher resistances are for sale or whether it will just be a stop on the way to the new ATH.
All we have to do is wait for this to happen and later arrange ourselves later.
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