The end of energy protection seems to come at the wrong time, that is, precisely when it costs less than on the free market. The data reported by Arera – the public authority for the energy sector – as well as the protection tariffs for the next quarter (made public on March 28) outline a very clear picture: today those on the free market pay more.
The simulation: the free market always loses
During the energy crisis (from mid-2021 to the first half of 2023) it was much better to be in the free market and the real blow was suffered by customers under protection. We do the example of the primo quarter 2023: the former paid (on average) 34.6 cents per energy for energy kilowattora; the seconds 62.3 cents/kWh. Almost double. But then the price on international markets deflated and the dynamics began to reverse. Until today, when on the Offer portal of Arera there are no free market offers more convenient than protection. Neither fixed price nor variable price.
Based on our simulation, assuming a family with annual consumption of 2500 kilowatt hours in Rome, Bari and Milan (committed power 3 kilowatts), the best variable price offer still costs 46 euros more than the protection one. And with the fixed price it gets even worse: the best on the market costs 60 euros more per year compared to a protected customer. Another point in favor of protection was marked on March 28, when Arera communicated that in the second quarter of 2024 its cost will drop by 19.8% compared to the first quarter, thus resulting in an annual expense of 662 euros between July 2023 and 30 June 2024; 47.7% less than the previous year.
Social bonus for electricity bills, the “extraordinary” discount ends. From April 1st we will return to the basic version
This is the landscape today. But Arera, in his hearing at the Chamber’s Productive Activities Committee, also estimated how much consumers will pay in 2024. For customers in the free market the comparison is based on the offers signed in December 2023 and the forward price quotation was used as a yardstick. of energy. This is a prediction, so it should not be taken at face value. Based on these estimates, Arera calculates that:
- In 2024, protected customers will pay an average of 33 cents per kilowatt hour for energy;
- Customers on the free market who changed supplier in December 2023, in 2024 they will pay 38 cents per kilowatt hour for energy.
Arrive prepared for the July deadline
It is good to remember that from next July all non-vulnerable consumers currently under protection will leave this regime. For these customers, two options remain on the table: the first is to find an operator on the free market, trying to limit the damage as far as possible; the second is to do nothing. In this case it will end up in Gradual protection service (Stg), a transitional regime in which, depending on the area you are in, you could change operator. But at rather affordable rates: according to an estimate by Switcho, in fact, 436 euros per year would be spent on the Stg compared to 482 on the free market. Why? It is the result of the auctions with which the operators competed for the share of customers still under protection: in order to win as many as possible, the companies applied enormous reductions in the fixed component – that is, the sum that is paid every month, regardless of consumption – until taking it into largely negative territory.
The Gradual Protection Service (Stg) for electricity, in which Italians who have not chosen an operator on the free market in July will end up, currently costs 20% less than protection. This was confirmed by the Arera energy authority in a memorandum presented this week to the Chamber’s Productive Activities Committee. As already anticipated by Republic, from July it will not be vulnerable customers – the only ones who will remain in protection – who will enjoy the most convenient prices. And this was a surprise to everyone, so much so Arera herself wonders if this was “the configuration that the legislator intended to pursue” and if “further and different interventions should not be considered in relation to vulnerable customers”. In other words, the authority is asking politicians to adjust their aim, to protect a little more all those elderly consumers and above all low-income families: the vulnerable precisely.
Hierarchies change
The auctions to assign consumers destined for the Stg, in addition to producing a super-convenient tariff, have also redesigned the geography of operators at a national level, diluting (slightly) the concentration. If it’s true that Enel e Eni they remain in the first two places, however Enel loses almost three million customers, going from 56 to 48% of the total domestic meters served.
They make the big leap Hera ed Edisonwhich respectively triple and double their customers, while Illumia sees them increase fivefold: while before it was outside the top 10, it is now in seventh place.
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Why so many discounts?
Arera explains why, during the auction, the companies have offered such substantial discounts on the fixed component (expressed in euros/year per meter) that in some cases they even reach 200 euros and at a national level translate into an annual discount of -73 euros on the bill compared to the 56 euros that are paid today under protection. The authority’s hypothesis is that the companies still considered the maxi-discount more convenient, given the possibility of saving costs to acquire customers through marketing campaigns. In fact, the gradual protections will last three years, at the end of which you will end up in the free market through the silent consent mechanism: it will therefore be rather simple to hold on to them in the future.
The other logic that may have guided the energy companies is that of territorial rooting: there are stronger companies in some territories than others, and in order to maintain that hard core they went “all in” with a mega-discount so as to secure the lot.
Differences between gradual protections and guardianship
Arera then remembers the main difference between the gradual protection service tariff and the vulnerability protection. Both are variable prices associated with the Pun index (the single national price) but while the price of protection is the result of a quarterly average, that of the Stg is instead a monthly average. What changes? In normal times, nothing. But if the wholesale price were to undergo sudden increases (as happened in 2022), for the vulnerable the impact of these increases would be diluted over time, while the others would immediately find themselves on their bills.
Finally, the authority refreshes everyone’s memory of some rules of the game: protection operators will not be able to use that channel to propose free market tariffs, nor use data or information acquired during the service for different purposes; “they will not even be able to use the same brand with which they carry out activities outside the service itself”. This does not mean that vulnerable people will still be able to receive offers from other operators on the free market.
Ma even non-vulnerable consumers who have already switched to the free market still have time to return to protection before July, so as to be included in gradual protections at the time of the transition. As long as they do it quickly, because the procedures for changing operators take about two months. To do this operation you need to ask the operator who carries out the protection in your reference area (for example in Milan it is A2A, in Rome it is Acea, in Naples the national electricity service). On the Arera website, to this pagejust enter your municipality to find out who to contact. Those who are already under protection do not have to do anything.
Who are the “vulnerable” and what should they do
All customers who have already reached the age of 75 or who fall within the parameters of the social bonus (therefore low income) are considered “vulnerable”. If these consumers are already protected, they won’t have to do anything: they will stay there. If they are on the free market they have the possibility of returning to protection at any time. Therefore even after July 2024. Other categories of vulnerable customers are:
- Consumers in serious health conditions requiring the use of medical-therapeutic equipment powered by electricity (or where there are people in such conditions)
- subjects with disabilities pursuant to article 3 of law 104/92
- Owners of a user in an emergency housing facility following calamitous events
- Owners of a user on a non-interconnected smaller island
#Bills #free #protected #market #estimated #prices
– 2024-03-30 05:47:45
