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In the absence of a credible official communication on the state of the Tunisian economy, bad news from international financial bodies is increasing, without viable solutions looming on the horizon. A recent report from Bank of America drives the point home …
In its report on the state of public finances in Tunisia, Bank of America indicated in a recent report that our country is facing an increase in financial pressures reflected by the draft of the corrective finance law of 2021.
In the absence of reforms and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the external financing requirement will reach 1.9 billion dollars, or the equivalent of 5.6 billion dinars during the fourth quarter of this year, which could lead to a delay in repayment of debts and a possible shortage of the state’s own resources, the report warned.
The US bank also noted that converting this gap into liquidity would double the size of the financing of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) compared to 2020, which would accelerate the decline in the national foreign exchange reserve.
The bank considers that although President Kais Saied has given the green light to officially begin negotiations for a new financing program with the IMF, the government’s room for maneuver remains uncertain.
The Bank also indicated that regional financial support to Tunisia is not guaranteed in the short term, as it was presented as evident during Prime Minister Najla Bouden’s last visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This confirms that bilateral financial cooperation cannot be considered as a solution to Tunisia’s financial difficulties, because all the bilateral support that will be granted to it in the future will require a restructuring of the public debt and recourse to the Paris Club. , track which will aggravate the economic crisis of the country, insists the report of Bank Of America.
The report estimated that Tunisia’s external debt is very high and that it should increase further in view of the prospects of the current social, economic and political situation of the country, especially if no initiative is taken to implement measures. corrective actions.
Tunisia must decisively tackle the issue of public finances and debt and restructuring of subsidies, public enterprises and the public wage bill, the IMF said recently. Along with reforms requiring painful decisions that the government has hesitated to implement since 2016, the date of the last loan program with the IMF, which was stopped in 2020, due to the failure to respect the reform commitments made by Tunisia.
Imed Bahri
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